External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CV Industry Outlook: AL’s domestic MHCV market share stood at ~31.5% in Q4FY24 (down from ~32% in Q4FY23) and the LCV market share stood at 11.3% (down from 11.7% in Q4FY23).</li><li>We expect the domestic CV industry growth outlook to remain subdued in the near term owing to the high base of last year as well as some impact of union elections.</li><li>However, long-term demand appears moderately favorable, backed by i) A strong macroeconomic environment, ii) Healthy replacement demand (specifically in the passenger vehicles), iii) Good traction on infrastructure projects, iv) The vehicle scrappage policy and v) Stable freight demand.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CV Industry Outlook: AL’s domestic MHCV market share stood at ~31.5% in Q4FY24 (down from ~32% in Q4FY23) and the LCV market share stood at 11.3% (down from 11.7% in Q4FY23).We expect the domestic CV industry growth outlook to remain subdued in the near term owing to the high base of last year as well as some impact of union elections.However, long-term demand appears moderately favorable, backed by i) A strong macroeconomic environment, ii) Healthy replacement demand (specifically in the passenger vehicles), iii) Good traction on infrastructure projects, iv) The vehicle scrappage policy and v) Stable freight demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland  - Strong EBITDA in Q4FY24; Expect Flattish MHCV Volumes Ahead

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Jun’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 5% YoY (down 3% MoM), largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars.</li><li>The domestic 2W industry (excl HMSI) witnessed volume growth of ~11% YoY (down 3% MoM) led by rural recovery; however exports declined 4% YoY (down 9% MoM) respectively.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~4% YoY (up 6% MoM) mainly due to lower LCV and MHCV goods carrier volumes being partly set off by high industry volume for buses. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jun’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 5% YoY (down 3% MoM), largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) , which were partly offset by weakness in entry-level cars.The domestic 2W industry (excl HMSI) witnessed volume growth of ~11% YoY (down 3% MoM) led by rural recovery; however exports declined 4% YoY (down 9% MoM) respectively.The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~4% YoY (up 6% MoM) mainly due to lower LCV and MHCV goods carrier volumes being partly set off by high industry volume for buses. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The CV industry has grown at a CAGR of ~21% over FY21-24E. After a strong upcycle we factor muted growth over the next few quarters because of a high base; and hence downgrade our rating from BUY to HOLD on the stock as valuation appears full at CMP.</li><li>Post the recent run-up in stock price, the valuation appears full and hence we downgrade our rating from BUY to HOLD with the TP at Rs 180/share (earlier Rs 205/share), valuing the stock at 18x P/E on FY26E EPS (earlier 19x P/E on Sep’25E EPS ).</li><li>Ashok Leyland’s Q3FY24 reported robust numbers - Revenue grew by 3% YoY (4% down QoQ), a 1.4% beat on our estimate due to higher ASP. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CV industry has grown at a CAGR of ~21% over FY21-24E. After a strong upcycle we factor muted growth over the next few quarters because of a high base; and hence downgrade our rating from BUY to HOLD on the stock as valuation appears full at CMP.Post the recent run-up in stock price, the valuation appears full and hence we downgrade our rating from BUY to HOLD with the TP at Rs 180/share (earlier Rs 205/share), valuing the stock at 18x P/E on FY26E EPS (earlier 19x P/E on Sep’25E EPS ).Ashok Leyland’s Q3FY24 reported robust numbers - Revenue grew by 3% YoY (4% down QoQ), a 1.4% beat on our estimate due to higher ASP. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland - Robust Q3FY24; CV Industry Outlook Flattish in the Near Term

<ul><li>Ashok Leyland’s Q2FY24 numbers stood slightly below ours and consensus estimates.</li><li>Revenue grew by 17%/18% YoY/QoQ, a 2.4% miss vs. our estimate on account of lower ASP.</li><li>ASPs declined by 2.4% QoQ, despite MHCV's share in total sales staying almost flat QoQ at 64%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland’s Q2FY24 numbers stood slightly below ours and consensus estimates.Revenue grew by 17%/18% YoY/QoQ, a 2.4% miss vs. our estimate on account of lower ASP.ASPs declined by 2.4% QoQ, despite MHCV's share in total sales staying almost flat QoQ at 64%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland  - Decent Q2FY24; Multiple Levers to Grow EBITDA Margins

<ul><li>We interacted with the Pan India dealers of Ashok Leyland, and the overall dealer network is positive on the CV cycle, with the MHCV demand outlook still holding up while the slowdown in the LCV segment persists.</li><li>AL’s growth strategy is to penetrate the traditionally weak North and East regions, grow in the Central region and defend its market leadership in the Southern region.</li><li>AL had a lower market share of ~25% in North and Eastern regions and 30%+ in the Central region against the Southern region where it enjoyed 43% MS in FY23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We interacted with the Pan India dealers of Ashok Leyland, and the overall dealer network is positive on the CV cycle, with the MHCV demand outlook still holding up while the slowdown in the LCV segment persists.AL’s growth strategy is to penetrate the traditionally weak North and East regions, grow in the Central region and defend its market leadership in the Southern region.AL had a lower market share of ~25% in North and Eastern regions and 30%+ in the Central region against the Southern region where it enjoyed 43% MS in FY23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland - Channel Check Suggests MHCV Demand Holding Up

India

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

Ashok Leyland - Strong EBITDA in Q4FY24; Expect Flattish MHCV Volumes Ahead

AL’s domestic MHCV market share stood at ~31.5% in Q4FY24 (down from ~32% in Q4FY23) and the LCV market share stood at 11.3% (down from 11.7% in...

Axis Direct

Auto Monthly Volume - June 2024

The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) grew by 5% YoY (down 3% MoM), largely led by strong domestic SUV volumes across Original Equipment Manufacturers...

Axis Direct

Ashok Leyland - Robust Q3FY24; CV Industry Outlook Flattish in the Near Term

Ashok Leyland’s Q3FY24 reported robust numbers - Revenue grew by 3% YoY (4% down QoQ), a 1.4% beat on our estimate due to higher ASP.

Axis Direct

Ashok Leyland - Decent Q2FY24; Multiple Levers to Grow EBITDA Margins

Ashok Leyland’s Q2FY24 numbers stood slightly below ours and consensus estimates. Revenue grew by 17%/18% YoY/QoQ, a 2.4% miss vs. our estimate on...

Axis Direct

Ashok Leyland - Channel Check Suggests MHCV Demand Holding Up

AL’s growth strategy is to penetrate the traditionally weak North and East regions, grow in the Central region and defend its market leadership in...

Axis Direct

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