Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.</p>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy</p>
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<p>Companies covered included <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> (Primarily Standalone India Business) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> /  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy

Companies covered included Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) (Primarily Standalone India Business) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN) /  Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BOB Capital Markets Ltd

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitability</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitabilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland (SELL): Margin stress ahead; maintain SELL

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<p>In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stove-kraft-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31372:1" rel="noopener">Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)</a></p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
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In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints (APNT IN) , Ashok Leyland (AL IN), Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) and Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)

About India Channel Insight


Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

<p>MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66% led by 1) strong volume growth, 2) increasing share of MHCV causing better realizations and 3) operating leverage benefits compensating RM cost inflations. We note improvement in fleet utilization levels post opening of the economy in June.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66% led by 1) strong volume growth, 2) increasing share of MHCV causing better realizations and 3) operating leverage benefits compensating RM cost inflations. We note improvement in fleet utilization levels post opening of the economy in June.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY21 Result Update - Operating leverage and mix to drive margins - BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>Better product mix, o/p leverage to outweigh cost pressures ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at exports as a major enabler. In line with this, it has introduced left hand drive (LHD) functionality across new platforms in both M&amp;HCV; (modular programme, AVTR) and LCV (Project Phoenix). Higher share of exports, going forward, is set to improve blended realizations. Under Project Reset', ALL expects profitability actions on costs, cash &amp; capex to reflect in financials meaningfully from FY22E onwards.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Better product mix, o/p leverage to outweigh cost pressures ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at exports as a major enabler. In line with this, it has introduced left hand drive (LHD) functionality across new platforms in both M&amp;HCV; (modular programme, AVTR) and LCV (Project Phoenix). Higher share of exports, going forward, is set to improve blended realizations. Under Project Reset', ALL expects profitability actions on costs, cash &amp; capex to reflect in financials meaningfully from FY22E onwards.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland: Well Poised to Capture Industry Tailwinds

India

Thermax Ltd manufactures equipment and machinery used to both produce and to conserve energy. The Company operates through a number of divisions, including Boilers, Heat Recovery Steam Generators, Water Treatment Plants and Air Pollution Control Equipment. In addition, Thermax  produces steam and gas turbines and diesel gensets through a number of strategic alliances.

Timken India Limited provides friction management solutions for a wide range of industry applications across the globe; from agriculture to construction, from heavy industrial applications to automobiles and from rail to related products. Timken provides a complete package solution for bearings and roll-shop maintenance.

Cummins India Limited manufactures internal combustion engines, including diesel, reciprocating piston, gas turbine and gasoline engines. The Company also manufactures generating sets and public transport-type passenger motor vehicles, including luxury coaches and air-field buses.  In addition, Cummins India Ltd. operates a computerized and fully-equipped research and development facility.

Grindwell Norton Limited manufactures abrasive products, including bonded and coated abrasives. The Company also manufactures silicon carbide and aluminum oxide, as well as industrial ceramics. Grindwell Norton also operates through a joint venture which manufactures a wide range of centralized lubrication systems (CLS).

Carborundum Universal Ltd manufactures refractories and electromineral grains. The Company produces coated and bonded abrasives, super refractories, aluminum oxide grains, calcined bauxite, electrocast refractories, silicon carbide grains and industrial ceramic products.

AIA Engineering Ltd. manufactures high chromium wear, corrosion, and abrasion resistant parts used by the cement, mining, and thermal power generation industries.

BEML Limited produces and sells earthmoving equipment, including railway rolling stock, heavy duty vehicles, wheel loaders, trailers, excavators and heavy recovery vehicles.

Titagarh Wagons Ltd. manufactures railroad cars.  The Company produces railway wagons, Bailey bridges, earth moving and mining equipment, and steel and iron castings.

Commercial Engineers & Body Builders Company Ltd. builds truck and locomotive bodies.  The Company produces dump truck, tanker, cargo box, skip-loader, garbage, troop carrier, prison van, fire engine and ambulance bodies; and locomotive, boxcar and passenger coach bodies.

SKF India Ltd. manufactures a wide range of ball and roller bearings, such as deep groove, taper roller and other types.  Bearings are used by a number of industries, including the automotive, electrical, power generation, cement, steel, petrochemical and textile industries.

Samsung Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. manufactures crude oil tankers, container vessels, bulk carriers, cruisers, and passenger ferries.  The Company also produces steel and bridge structures, and material handling equipment.  In addition, Samsung Heavy Industries provides civil engineering, architectural, and plant construction services.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Limited builds a wide range of ships. The Company produces a wide range of commercial vessels, mini bulk carriers, multi-purpose cargo vessels, containerships, chemical tankers, offshore supply vessels, rescue and salvage vessels, and lifting vessels.

Donaldson Company, Inc. manufactures filtration systems and replacement parts. The Company's products include filters and emission control products for heavy duty mobile equipment, in-plant air cleaning systems, air intake systems for industrial gas turbines, and specialized filters for computer disk drives, aircraft cabins, and semiconductors. Donaldson operates around the world.

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment throughout the world.  The Company sells a range of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts, including tractors, combines, hay tools, sprayers, and forage equipment.  AGCO markets its products under a variety of brand names, including Massey Ferguson, AGCO, Tye, GLEANER, and Hesston.

EBARA CORPORATION manufactures pneumatic and hydraulic pumps and related equipment.  The Company's products include fuel, oil, water, and firefighting pumps, as well as steam turbines and boilers.  Ebara Corporation also engineers garbage incinerators, smoke desulfurizers, and other products related to environmental technology.

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

Minebea Mitsumi manufactures and markets miniature and instrument ball bearings.  The Company also makes DC motors, servo motors, stepping motors, spindle motors, pivot assemblies, rod-end and spherical bearings, fasteners, and computer keyboards. Minebea Mitsumi has production facilities in Thailand and Singapore.

Watts Water Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells a line of products to the water regulation and control markets.  The Company has manufacturing plants and distribution channels in the United States, Canada, and Europe, as well as a joint venture in The People's Republic of China.

Chart Industries, Inc. is a global manufacturer of equipment used in the production, storage, and end-use of hydrocarbon and industrial gases. The Company's products include vacuum-insulated containment vessels, heat exchangers, cold boxes, and other cryogenic components.

RBC Bearings Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets bearing products. The Company offers precision plain, roller, cam followers, couplings, collars, locking, tool holders, shafts, pins, rods, tubes, and ball bearings. RBC Bearings serves industrial, aerospace, and defense markets worldwide.

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Companies covered included Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ashok Leyland (SELL): Margin stress ahead; maintain SELL

Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitability

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip Ltd and Stove Kraft

Pranav Bhavsar

Q4FY21 Result Update - Operating leverage and mix to drive margins - BUY

MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66%...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Ashok Leyland: Well Poised to Capture Industry Tailwinds

Better product mix, O/P leverage to outweigh cost pressures. ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at...

ICICI Securities Limited

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