Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> Board has recommended shareholders vote against the appointment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a>’s two director nominees.</li>
<li>The EGM vote on 18 October is too close to call and depends on Shandong Xinjufeng and management's ability to rally disengaged minorities to their respective causes.   </li>
<li>Irrespective of the EGM vote results, Shandong Xinjufeng will be keen to launch its offer to ward off the threat of a possible competing offer from management. </li>
</ul>


Unsurprisingly, the Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) Board has recommended shareholders vote against the appointment of Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s two director nominees.
The EGM vote on 18 October is too close to call and depends on Shandong Xinjufeng and management's ability to rally disengaged minorities to their respective causes.   
Irrespective of the EGM vote results, Shandong Xinjufeng will be keen to launch its offer to ward off the threat of a possible competing offer from management. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> disclosed that Mr Bi Hua Jeff (CEO) and Mr Hong Gang (co-founder) are contemplating a possible voluntary conditional offer. The terms and conditions were not disclosed.</li>
<li>Due to the recent AGM protest votes, management needed to provide a credible alternative to shareholders to ensure that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a>’s offer failed.   </li>
<li>Shandong Xinjufeng's likely game plan is to wait for a binding counteroffer, focus on satisfying the preconditions, and requisition an EGM again to get Board representation.</li>
</ul>



Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) disclosed that Mr Bi Hua Jeff (CEO) and Mr Hong Gang (co-founder) are contemplating a possible voluntary conditional offer. The terms and conditions were not disclosed.
Due to the recent AGM protest votes, management needed to provide a credible alternative to shareholders to ensure that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s offer failed.   
Shandong Xinjufeng's likely game plan is to wait for a binding counteroffer, focus on satisfying the preconditions, and requisition an EGM again to get Board representation.


GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orora-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16042:1" rel="noopener">Orora Ltd (ORA AU)</a> disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. </li>
<li>The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Orora Ltd (ORA AU) disclosed that it had rejected Lone Star's indicative non-binding proposal at A$2.55 per share, a 33.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is opportunistically timed to take advantage of the share price collapse precipitating from the profit warning on 2 April. 
The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding compared to peer multiples.


Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

<ul>
<li>On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.</li>
<li>Since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial's offer on all but bar one trading day</li>
<li>Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).</li>
</ul>


On 15 July, the precondition for Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK) was satisfied, but the despatch of the offer document was delayed until or before 30 July.
Since ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) announced its HK$7.21 offer on 7 June, the shares have traded above Changping Industrial's offer on all but bar one trading day
Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally higher than ORG’s offer (high probability).


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Decisions, Decisions as Changping Industrial’s Offer Set to Open

Australia

Amcor Limited is an international integrated packaging company offering packaging and related services.  Amcor primarily produces a wide range of packaging products which include corrugated boxes, cartons, aluminum and steel cans, flexible plastic packaging, PET plastic bottles and jars, and multi-wall sacks.

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Amcor Limited (AMC AU)

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

GA Pack (468 HK): Crunch Time

The EGM vote will be close. Irrespective of the vote, Shandong Xinjufeng has a solid incentive to satisfy its offer’s precondition and management...

Arun George

GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer

As expected, Shandong Xinjufeng has resubmitted an EGM requisition for appointing two director nominees, this time with the correct entity. The...

Arun George

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Decisions, Decisions as Changping Industrial’s Offer Set to Open

Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

GA Pack (468 HK): Crunch Time

The EGM vote will be close. Irrespective of the vote, Shandong Xinjufeng has a solid incentive to satisfy its offer’s precondition and management...

Arun George

GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer

As expected, Shandong Xinjufeng has resubmitted an EGM requisition for appointing two director nominees, this time with the correct entity. The...

Arun George

Orora (ORA AU): Lone Star’s Opportunistic A$2.55 Offer

The Lone Star offer is unattractive and could also draw other suitors. If Lone Star walks, the downside is low, as Orora’s valuation is undemanding...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Decisions, Decisions as Changping Industrial’s Offer Set to Open

Changping Industrial has three options: launch at unchanged terms (low probability), match ORG’s offer (medium probability) or bump marginally...

Arun George

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....