IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since announcing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a>’s pre-conditional voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> at HK$2.65 per share, the gross spread has increased. </li>
<li>The Board’s strategy is to rally shareholders against a hostile offer. However, the recent AGM protest votes suggest that the Board cannot easily thwart the offer. </li>
<li>Shandong Xinjufeng's renewed efforts to secure Board representation suggest that its offer is in trouble. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a> seems disinclined to engage in a bidding war. </li>
</ul>


Since announcing Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s pre-conditional voluntary offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) at HK$2.65 per share, the gross spread has increased. 
The Board’s strategy is to rally shareholders against a hostile offer. However, the recent AGM protest votes suggest that the Board cannot easily thwart the offer. 
Shandong Xinjufeng's renewed efforts to secure Board representation suggest that its offer is in trouble. Meanwhile, China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK) seems disinclined to engage in a bidding war. 


GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> disclosed a competing pre-conditional voluntary offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> at HK$7.21, a 4.9% premium to Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer.  </li>
<li>Like the Changping Industrial offer, ORG’s offer is pre-conditional on regulatory approvals and has a 50% minimum acceptance condition. Changping Industrial has secured all regulatory approvals except SAMR. </li>
<li>ORG’s skinny premium and precarious irrevocable from Mr Zhang Wei suggests Changping Industrial’s next move is to secure Mr Wei’s irrevocable with a revised higher offer.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) disclosed a competing pre-conditional voluntary offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) at HK$7.21, a 4.9% premium to Changping Industrial’s HK$6.87 offer.  
Like the Changping Industrial offer, ORG’s offer is pre-conditional on regulatory approvals and has a 50% minimum acceptance condition. Changping Industrial has secured all regulatory approvals except SAMR. 
ORG’s skinny premium and precarious irrevocable from Mr Zhang Wei suggests Changping Industrial’s next move is to secure Mr Wei’s irrevocable with a revised higher offer.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG’s Competing Offer Kicks off an Auction

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> disclosed a pre-conditional voluntary offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> at HK$2.65, a 26.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The pre-condition relates to Chinese regulatory approvals and Shandong Xinjufeng shareholder approval. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition.</li>
<li>Shandong Xinjufeng’s previous acquisition of Jardine Matheson’s 28.22% stake elicited a defensive move by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>. This development is likely to force a Mengniu competing VGO.  </li>
</ul>



Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) disclosed a pre-conditional voluntary offer for Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) at HK$2.65, a 26.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The pre-condition relates to Chinese regulatory approvals and Shandong Xinjufeng shareholder approval. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition.
Shandong Xinjufeng’s previous acquisition of Jardine Matheson’s 28.22% stake elicited a defensive move by China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK). This development is likely to force a Mengniu competing VGO.  


Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng VGO Could Force Mengniu to Act

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. </li>
<li>An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) has a pre-conditional voluntary offer from Changping Industrial at HK$6.87 and potentially a competing offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH). 
Five months after announcing its offer, Changping Industrial obtained regulatory approvals from all except SAMR, SAFE, and the Vietnam Competition Commission. 
An ORG offer seems unlikely due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional before the ORG obtains regulatory approvals.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> disclosed that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>, the second-largest shareholder, is considering a competing voluntary conditional general cash offer.</li>
<li>It is rare to bid against an SOE bidder. ORG likely has implicit SOE support to launch a competing offer due to the need for Chinese regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>The possible scenarios suggest Mr Zhang Wei is the winning bid’s kingmaker. Mr Wei sold down 260K shares at HK$6.35 on 8 December, indicating a willingness to exit.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK) disclosed that ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH), the second-largest shareholder, is considering a competing voluntary conditional general cash offer.
It is rare to bid against an SOE bidder. ORG likely has implicit SOE support to launch a competing offer due to the need for Chinese regulatory approvals. 
The possible scenarios suggest Mr Zhang Wei is the winning bid’s kingmaker. Mr Wei sold down 260K shares at HK$6.35 on 8 December, indicating a willingness to exit.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Possible Scenarios as ORG Mulls a Competing Offer

Australia

Amcor Limited is an international integrated packaging company offering packaging and related services.  Amcor primarily produces a wide range of packaging products which include corrugated boxes, cartons, aluminum and steel cans, flexible plastic packaging, PET plastic bottles and jars, and multi-wall sacks.

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Amcor Limited (AMC AU)

GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate

There is a stalemate as the Board and Shandong Xinjufeng appear to have similar levels of support. The risk (12.1% downside to undisturbed)/reward...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG’s Competing Offer Kicks off an Auction

ORG’s skinny premium and precarious irrevocable from Mr Zhang Wei suggests Changping Industrial’s next move is to secure Mr Wei’s irrevocable with...

Arun George

Greatview Aseptic (468 HK): Shandong Xinjufeng VGO Could Force Mengniu to Act

Shandong Xinjufeng’s previous acquisition of Jardine Matheson’s 28.22% stake elicited a defensive move by Mengniu. This development is likely to...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): ORG Nearing the Cut-Off Point for Its Competing Offer

An ORG offer has a low probability due to a lack of progress in May and timing risk, as the Changping Industrial offer could be unconditional...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Possible Scenarios as ORG Mulls a Competing Offer

The possible scenarios suggest Mr Zhang Wei is the winning bid’s kingmaker. Mr Wei sold down 260K shares at HK$6.35 on 8 December, indicating a...

Arun George

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