TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Prime price increased, Covid expenses starting to moderate, margins set to rise.</li>
<li>Fulfillment buildout moderates, 1-day shipping can now launch more widely, share gains will ensue, revenue growth will reaccelerate.</li>
<li>We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.</li>
</ul>


Prime price increased, Covid expenses starting to moderate, margins set to rise.
Fulfillment buildout moderates, 1-day shipping can now launch more widely, share gains will ensue, revenue growth will reaccelerate.
We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.


Amazon 4Q21: Don’t Call It a Comeback, We’ve Been Here (Investing) For Years

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huitongda-network-ipo-initiation-clicks-to-bricks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:63428" rel="noopener">Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks</a>, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   </li>
<li>For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. </li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.
In Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   
For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. 


Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> are in a battle for share in online fashion with both companies increasingly aping the other to attract both merchants and consumers. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a> aren’t standing still either but the competitive pressures between Rakuten and Zozo may put them ahead of their rivals.</li>
<li>This competitive edge now encompasses both physical stores and online platforms for physical retailers, with the aim to bind them ever closer to the platform.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) and ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) are in a battle for share in online fashion with both companies increasingly aping the other to attract both merchants and consumers. 

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Z Holdings (4689 JP) aren’t standing still either but the competitive pressures between Rakuten and Zozo may put them ahead of their rivals.
This competitive edge now encompasses both physical stores and online platforms for physical retailers, with the aim to bind them ever closer to the platform.


Platforms Add Merchant Support as Japan's Online Fashion Wars Move Offline

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  </li>
<li>We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)</li>
<li>Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.</li>
</ul>


With half of Nasdaq stocks down 50% from the top, is further meltdown ahead?  Valuation compression is already larger than recent big growth selloffs.  
We like a balance of highest quality high growth (CRWD, SNOW, RBLX) and attractive relative valuations (PANW, NOW, BABA)
Amazon is poised for a big 2022 as 1 day Prime shipping reaccelerates growth, and price increases hike profits.


United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)

Amazon 4Q21: Don’t Call It a Comeback, We’ve Been Here (Investing) For Years

Reaccelerating growth, better than expected margins and FCF in 2022-2023, and a catchup trade on the come. We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long...

Aaron Gabin

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Huitongda will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318m. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the...

Arun George

Platforms Add Merchant Support as Japan's Online Fashion Wars Move Offline

Zozo has had a good run during the pandemic and we continue to remain bullish about its growth thanks to many recent innovations but the biggest...

Michael Causton

1H22 Obex Research Long Portfolio

With the big rate driven selloff in growth stocks, we highlight our top long ideas including ON Semi, Palo Alto Networks, Alibaba, Amazon, and...

Aaron Gabin

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