HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The main purpose for Sihuan to acquire Combio is to form a strong innovative drug business Xuanzhu and then make large capital gains from the subsequent spin-off and listing.</li>
<li>All the three Core Products need to face fierce competition, and their clinical data do not show obvious advantages to competing products, making them hard to stand out.</li>
<li>Based on the announcement on Nov.12, 2024, valuation of Xuanzhu was RMB8.5 billion. However, due to the lack of competitive pipelines and weak commercialization prospects, we think Xuanzhu is overvalued.</li>
</ul>


The main purpose for Sihuan to acquire Combio is to form a strong innovative drug business Xuanzhu and then make large capital gains from the subsequent spin-off and listing.
All the three Core Products need to face fierce competition, and their clinical data do not show obvious advantages to competing products, making them hard to stand out.
Based on the announcement on Nov.12, 2024, valuation of Xuanzhu was RMB8.5 billion. However, due to the lack of competitive pipelines and weak commercialization prospects, we think Xuanzhu is overvalued.


Pre-IPO Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical- Outdated Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring Good Investment Returns

Duality Biotherapeutics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since DB-1303 has no advantage in clinical data in front of competing products, the commercialization outlook is gloomy. The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability of this target.</li>
<li>Considering that the current capital market has become more and more rational toward innovative drug/biotech companies, the absence of commercialized products of Duality will obviously affect valuation expectations.</li>
<li>The post-money valuation after Series B+ financing is about US$270 million (or about RMB2 billion), which is not expensive, and there is a chance to obtain valuation premium after IPO. </li>
</ul>


Since DB-1303 has no advantage in clinical data in front of competing products, the commercialization outlook is gloomy. The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability of this target.
Considering that the current capital market has become more and more rational toward innovative drug/biotech companies, the absence of commercialized products of Duality will obviously affect valuation expectations.
The post-money valuation after Series B+ financing is about US$270 million (or about RMB2 billion), which is not expensive, and there is a chance to obtain valuation premium after IPO. 


Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.</li>
<li>Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.</li>
<li>Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  </li>
</ul>


Sales of generic drugs are the largest performance contributor. However, due to VBP and the price reduction, Haixi’s generic drug business may shrink and is hard to drive future growth.
Haixi’s valuation outlook would be mainly based on innovative drug pipeline. The primary goal is to address the issue of druggability of C019199. Haixi needs to provide convincing clinical data.
Valuation of Haixi was about RMB1.948 billion in 2022. Considering the VBP, R&amp;D failure risk of C019199, no licensing cooperation with MNCs, we think valuation could be lower than peers.  


Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.</li>
<li>We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> should be added in May.</li>
<li>We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.</li>
</ul>


There are 29 adds and 41 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the March rebalance to take the number of index constituents down to 505.
We expect 27 of the 29 HSCI inclusions to be added to Stock Connect from the open on 10 March while Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) should be added in May.
We expect 28 of the 41 HSCI deletions will be removed from Stock Connect and there has been increased Southbound holding in a lot of the stock this calendar year.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.</li>
<li>I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.</li>
<li>Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.</li>
</ul>


The vote on Fosun Pharma’s HK$24.60 offer for Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) is on 22 January. The gross spread has ballooned to 21.8%, which suggests a deal break.
I previously stated that LVC’s trading behaviour over the coming days will indicate its voting intentions. Unfortunately, this behaviour suggests a high likelihood of blocking the vote.
Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing: increase the share alternative cap or introduce a rollover option. Both have challenges and are, therefore, not viable options.


Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

China

Alphamab Oncology produces and sells drugs. The Company manufactures and sells tumor immunobiology macromolecular targeted drug and other products. Alphamab Oncology provides services worldwide.

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Alphamab Co Ltd (9966 HK)

Pre-IPO Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical- Outdated Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring Good Investment Returns

Sihuan's acquisition of Combio aims to create a strong innovative drug business Xuanzhu, but concerns arise over its outdated pipeline,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

DB-1303 face challenges in commercialization.The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability. Duality’s pre-IPO valuation isn't...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 29 adds/ 41 deletes for the HSCI in March. We expect 27 inclusions and 28 deletions for Southbound Stock Connect. There are big holdings...

Brian Freitas

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

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Pre-IPO Xuanzhu Biopharmaceutical- Outdated Pipelines Are Difficult to Bring Good Investment Returns

​Sihuan's acquisition of Combio aims to create a strong innovative drug business Xuanzhu, but concerns arise over its outdated pipeline,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​DB-1303 face challenges in commercialization.The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability. Duality’s pre-IPO valuation isn't...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Fujian Haixi Pharmaceuticals - The Concerns on the Pipeline and the Outlook

Generic drugs ​sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 41 Deletes & Changes to Southbound Stock Connect

There are 29 adds/ 41 deletes for the HSCI in March. We expect 27 inclusions and 28 deletions for Southbound Stock Connect. There are big holdings...

Brian Freitas

Henlius (2696 HK): Hurtling Towards a Likely Deal Break

LVC’s trading behaviour suggests that it is likely to block the vote. Fosun Pharma has two potential options to secure LVC’s backing. Both have...

Arun George

Sihuan's acquisition of Combio aims to create a strong innovative drug business Xuanzhu, but concerns arise over its outdated pipeline,...

DB-1303 face challenges in commercialization.The priority for DB-1311 is to verify the druggability. Duality’s pre-IPO valuation isn't...

Generic drugs sales are key for Haixi's performance, but future growth will be hindered by VBP. Considering R&D failure risk of C019199, no...