Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. </li>
<li>PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. </li>
<li>We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. </li>
</ul>


Early 6/18 pulled June sales into May, leading to disappointing June NBS data. Combined, online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June, and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. 
PDD remained the top shelf-ecommerce platform with GMV growing ~20%, followed by Taobao/Tmall (TTG) at ~6-7%, and JD and VIPS at ~2-3% yoy. 
We expect JD and BABA to report slight earnings beats and guide upbeat on continued profitability improvement in 2H24. 


[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Humanoid robot development is rapidly advancing with improvements in AI, mobility, and interaction capabilities, exciting progress being made.</li><li>China's cloud service spending expected to surge 20% by 2024, with the country leading the hydrogen race through policies and demand.</li><li>Former TSMC R&amp;D director sheds light on Taiwan chip industry facing geopolitical shifts, reaching a crucial crossroads amidst declining semiconductor market.</li></ul>

Humanoid robot development is rapidly advancing with improvements in AI, mobility, and interaction capabilities, exciting progress being made.China's cloud service spending expected to surge 20% by 2024, with the country leading the hydrogen race through policies and demand.Former TSMC R&amp;D director sheds light on Taiwan chip industry facing geopolitical shifts, reaching a crucial crossroads amidst declining semiconductor market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Jun-2024): Humanoid robot develpment status.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, we continued to look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webtoon-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43652:1" rel="noopener">Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US)</a>, along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics</a>. </li>
<li>On the placement front, there were quite a few deals in India, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atour-lifestyle-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33481:1" rel="noopener">Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)</a> was the major Asia linked offerings.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we continued to look at Shift Up (462870 KS),  Guzman Y Gomez and Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN US), along with Mao Geping Cosmetics. 
On the placement front, there were quite a few deals in India, while Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) was the major Asia linked offerings.


ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>A stabilizing property market matters more than other factors such as industry rivalry and shareholder return policies for the performance of leading China e-commerce players in our view.</li>
<li>China's worst property market downturn is probably behind us. This will gradually help restore consumer confidence and lift consumer propensity to spend, improving growth outlook for China e-commerce sector.</li>
<li>We believe China e-commerce players will in general benefit from a stabilizing housing market. Alibaba remains the most attractive play in the space. </li>
</ul>


A stabilizing property market matters more than other factors such as industry rivalry and shareholder return policies for the performance of leading China e-commerce players in our view.
China's worst property market downturn is probably behind us. This will gradually help restore consumer confidence and lift consumer propensity to spend, improving growth outlook for China e-commerce sector.
We believe China e-commerce players will in general benefit from a stabilizing housing market. Alibaba remains the most attractive play in the space. 


China E-Commerce: Stabilizing Property Market Matters a Lot

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Jun-2024): Humanoid robot develpment status.

Robot development advances with AI, mobility, and interaction improvements; China cloud spending to surge; Polish photonics foundation solidified;...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

China E-Commerce: Stabilizing Property Market Matters a Lot

The worst slump of China property market is probably behind us, which should slowly remove the key drag on China e-commerce sector. Alibaba is best...

Eric Chen

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[Blue Lotus E-Commerce Sector Update]: Tax Reform a Light at the End of the Tunnel for Ecommerce

​June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (28-Jun-2024): Humanoid robot develpment status.

Robot development advances with AI, mobility, and interaction improvements; China cloud spending to surge; Polish photonics foundation solidified;...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ECM Weekly (17th June 2024)-Shift Up, Webtoon, Quantum, Guzman, MaoGeping, Johor Plant, Telix, Atour

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

China E-Commerce: Stabilizing Property Market Matters a Lot

The worst slump of China property market is probably behind us, which should slowly remove the key drag on China e-commerce sector. Alibaba is best...

Eric Chen

June sales pulled into May led to disappointing June NBS data. Online retail grew 5.1% yoy in May/June and 6.4% yoy in 2Q24. PDD led in GMV...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...