Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 3.8% and (71)% vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>The discrepancy between non-GAAP operating and GAAP net is due to restructuring charges;</li>
<li>A few clients asked what it would take to be more positive on BABA. To us, grasp of its situation and alignment of the organization must happen first...</li>
</ul>


BABA reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 3.8% and (71)% vs. our estimates. 
The discrepancy between non-GAAP operating and GAAP net is due to restructuring charges;
A few clients asked what it would take to be more positive on BABA. To us, grasp of its situation and alignment of the organization must happen first...


[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$66) TP Change]: What It Takes for Us to Be More Positive on BABA?

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.</li>
<li>The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.</li>
<li>That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. </li>
</ul>


Alibaba reported a largely in-line December quarter as lower take rate and widened loss from international commerce businesses resulted in pressured bottom line.
The results also suggest a persisting pattern of China consumers trading down, which - along with the company’s ongoing internal overhaul – will continue to be headwind in 1H24.
That said, we see increase of US$25 billion share repurchase program and dividend policy to well support share price at current valuation. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn, down 4% YoY, both largely inline with Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>Management remains committed to investment to drive top-line growth and market share gains for core businesses, as well as to continued loss reduction and exit of non-core business when market conditions improve.</li><li>Although business transition will likely take time, with an upsizing of the share repurchase program to US$35.3bn and guidance of at least 3% in annual reduction of total shares outstanding through Mar 2027, management’s determination in enhancing shareholder return remains firm. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn, down 4% YoY, both largely inline with Bloomberg consensus.Management remains committed to investment to drive top-line growth and market share gains for core businesses, as well as to continued loss reduction and exit of non-core business when market conditions improve.Although business transition will likely take time, with an upsizing of the share repurchase program to US$35.3bn and guidance of at least 3% in annual reduction of total shares outstanding through Mar 2027, management’s determination in enhancing shareholder return remains firm. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY and its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points YoY in 3Q24.
We believe the company turned its focus from margin improvement to revenue growth.
We set the upside at 20% and the price target at HK$90 for March 2025. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

<ul>
<li>Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.</li>
<li>We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.</li>
<li>We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments.
We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from cost cut to revenue growth.
We set the stock upside at 26% and the price target at HK$91. Buy.


Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

Prosus N.V. provides internet based services. The Company focuses on investments in internet, digital media, e-commerce retailing, and consumer internet companies. Prosus serves customers worldwide.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

Golden Eagle Retail Group Limited operates department stores in China. The Company's stores target mid-range and high-end market segments in China, and contain various functions and amenities such as dining, entertainment, beauty and personal care, cinemas, and preschool education in addition to their core function as an international department store.

Tianjin Quanye Bazaar (Group) Co., Ltd. owns and operates department stores and supermarkets, as well as sells general merchandise on a wholesale basis. Tianjin Quanye also provides storage and cargo delivery services, and invests in real estate and interior decoration businesses.

Xian International Medical Investment Co Ltd is principally engaged in the medical services industry.

Xian International Medical Invest (000516 CH)

Dollar General Corporation operates a chain of discount retail stores located primarily in the southern, southwestern, midwestern, and eastern United States. The Company offer a broad selection of merchandise, including consumable products such as food, paper and cleaning products, health, beauty, pet supplies, and non-consumables such as seasonal merchandise.

Trent Limited operates a chain of retail stores that sell fashion apparel, cosmetics, perfumery products and toiletry items. The Company sells apparel for men, women and children. Trent sells its cosmetics products under the "Westside" and "Trent" brand names.

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates a discount variety store chain in the United States. The Company sells an assortment of everyday general merchandise at the $1.00 price point.

Pan Pacific International Holdings Corporation operates discount stores which sell consumer electronics, daily necessities, groceries, watches, and sporting goods. The Company mostly operates small scale stores based in Tokyo.

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

Target Corporation operates general merchandise discount stores. The Company focuses on merchandising operations which includes general merchandise and food discount stores and a fully integrated online business. Target also offers credit to qualified applicants through its branded proprietary credit cards.

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

Next Plc conducts retailing, home shopping, and customer services management operations.  The Company's retail stores sell ladies wear, mens wear, childrens wear, and housewares.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. (ASL) owns and operates hypermarkets and supermarkets. The Company offers products such as garments, footwears, toys and games, bed and bath linen, stationery, grocery, household, and electronic products. ASL operates throughout India.

Dollarama Inc. operates as an online marketplace. The Company offers cleaning, school, office, home, kitchen, food, health, beauty, hardware, electronics, toys, and pets products, as well as provides delivery services. Dollarama serves customers in Canada.

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$66) TP Change]: What It Takes for Us to Be More Positive on BABA?

BABA's Q4 results meet expectations, but restructuring charges impact net income. Alignment within the organization is crucial for a more positive...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn,...

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$66) TP Change]: What It Takes for Us to Be More Positive on BABA?

​BABA's Q4 results meet expectations, but restructuring charges impact net income. Alignment within the organization is crucial for a more positive...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Alibaba (BABA US): Upzised Share Repurchase to Support Share Price

While deflationary pressure continues to be headwind for Alibaba in the near term, we expect upsized share repurchase program and dividend policy...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (BABA US) - Enhancing Shareholder Return While Remaining Ambitious

Alibaba reported 3QFY24 (March year-end) results: total revenue was RMB260.3bn, up 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB48.2bn,...

CMB International

Alibaba (9988 HK): 3Q24, Unimpressive as Expected, But Turning Focus from Margin to Growth

Alibaba’s revenue grew by 5% YoY, but its operating margin improved by 2 percentage points in 3Q24. We believe the company turned its focus from...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK) 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Could Be Unimpressive, But Just Reorganized Main Business

Alibaba Changed its Tmall Taobao business unit from three centers to six departments. We believe the change means Alibaba is moving its focus from...

Ming Lu

BABA's Q4 results meet expectations, but restructuring charges impact net income. Alignment within the organization is crucial for a more positive...