Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)</a>'s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years' challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.</li>
<li>However, a closer look beyond the surface of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>'s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.</li>
<li>Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's expansion cuts into margins.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)'s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years' challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)'s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's expansion cuts into margins.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters.</li>
<li>We believe margin will continue to decline as the company turned its focus to growth.</li>
<li>We conclude an upside of 41% for March 2025 based on peer companies’ P/S ratios.</li>
</ul>


Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters.
We believe margin will continue to decline as the company turned its focus to growth.
We conclude an upside of 41% for March 2025 based on peer companies’ P/S ratios.


Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We feel consensus overstates margin pressure for Alibaba’s March quarter results. We expect its group adjusted EBITA to deliver single-digit growth vs. investors’ concern about earnings retreat.</li>
<li>March quarter should mark start of an earnings recovery cycle in our view, as improving China macro and well-executed business revamp plan put Alibaba back on growth track.</li>
<li>This also means an end to its multiple contraction which lasted for five quarters. We see 50% upside on double-digit earnings growth and multiple expansion over next 12 months.</li>
</ul>


We feel consensus overstates margin pressure for Alibaba’s March quarter results. We expect its group adjusted EBITA to deliver single-digit growth vs. investors’ concern about earnings retreat.
March quarter should mark start of an earnings recovery cycle in our view, as improving China macro and well-executed business revamp plan put Alibaba back on growth track.
This also means an end to its multiple contraction which lasted for five quarters. We see 50% upside on double-digit earnings growth and multiple expansion over next 12 months.


Alibaba (BABA US): Margin Pressure Overstated

<ul>
<li>We believe revenue will grow by 6% YoY in 4Q24, but by 11% for FY2026 (roughly 2025 calendar year).</li>
<li>We believe Alibaba has been actively raising its revenue growth, but this the effect cannot be seen in the short run.</li>
<li>We conclude the stock has an upside of 46% and a price target of US$120.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will grow by 6% YoY in 4Q24, but by 11% for FY2026 (roughly 2025 calendar year).
We believe Alibaba has been actively raising its revenue growth, but this the effect cannot be seen in the short run.
We conclude the stock has an upside of 46% and a price target of US$120.


Alibaba (BABA US) 4Q24 Preview: Many Moves Under One-Digit Growth, 46% Upside

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In its last update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group</a> announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.</li>
<li>The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?</li>
<li>Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a> could take the stock higher from here. </li>
</ul>


In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC's growth largely covers for other Alibaba units' failings, while AliExpress's...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Alibaba (9988 HK): 4Q24, Main Business Began to Grow

Customer management as the largest business began to increase compared to the past two stagnant quarters. We believe margin will continue to...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): Margin Pressure Overstated

We believe consensus overstates margin pressure for Alibaba March quarter results, which will usher in an mild earnings recovery cycle that lead us...

Eric Chen

Alibaba (BABA US) 4Q24 Preview: Many Moves Under One-Digit Growth, 46% Upside

We believe Alibaba has been actively raising its revenue growth, but this the effect cannot be seen in the short run. We conclude the stock has an...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

Alibaba will convert from a Secondary Listing on the HKEX to a dual primary listing effective 28 August. That should mean inclusion in Southbound...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)