Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Toei Animation (4816 JP)'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Samsonite (1910 HK), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), APM Human Services Internation (APM AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

<ul>
<li>I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/superloop-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23604:1" rel="noopener">Superloop (SLC AU)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qantm-intellectual-property" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24317:1" rel="noopener">Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a>'s rumoured approaches. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 54 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma (possible four): Offers for Alumina (AWC AU), Superloop (SLC AU) &amp; Qantm Intellectual (QIP AU); Samsonite (1910 HK)'s ESR (1821 HK)'s rumoured approaches. 
Key updates took place on APM Human Services Internation (APM AU), Adbri (ABC AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), and Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

<ul>
<li>For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of February 2024, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in February was ~33%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>'s non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> is 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share, implying a value of A$1.15, a 13.1% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Alcoa has been granted a 20-business day exclusivity period. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. Allan Gray, the largest shareholder, is supportive. </li>
<li>While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming against the offer. </li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)'s non-binding proposal from Alcoa (AA US) is 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share, implying a value of A$1.15, a 13.1% premium to the undisturbed price.
Alcoa has been granted a 20-business day exclusivity period. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal. Allan Gray, the largest shareholder, is supportive. 
While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming against the offer. 


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

United States

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

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Alcoa (AA US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Alumina, Superloop, Qantm, Samsonite, ESR, APM , Adbri, CSR, Outsourcing

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Feb 2024: Lawson, Altium, CSR, TCM, Boral, APM, Roland DG, Ssangyong Cement

For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$20bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s All-Scrip Non-Binding Proposal Seems Opportunistic

While strategically sensible, the offer is not a knockout bid. The headcount test is a risk as retail forums suggest a majority view forming...

Arun George

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