Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> extended its writedowns and the shares fell sharply. By end-Feb, we found out Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought shares. </li>
<li>I didn't see the endgame. The pump worked, but he didn't dump. Then Aozora got Daiwa to be a lead investor through a 3rd party share allotment, diluting Murakami-san.</li>
<li>Last week we got news the FSA had approved the Daiwa transaction. Yesterday, we got news the Murakami Group would sell its whole stake to Daiwa. </li>
</ul>


In February, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) extended its writedowns and the shares fell sharply. By end-Feb, we found out Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought shares. 
I didn't see the endgame. The pump worked, but he didn't dump. Then Aozora got Daiwa to be a lead investor through a 3rd party share allotment, diluting Murakami-san.
Last week we got news the FSA had approved the Daiwa transaction. Yesterday, we got news the Murakami Group would sell its whole stake to Daiwa. 


Daiwa to Buy More Aozora (8304) Shares - Murakami-San Escapes

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pre-Open on February 1 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.</li>
<li>Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.</li>
<li>Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!</li>
</ul>


Pre-Open on February 1 2024, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.
Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.
Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!


Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

<ul>
<li>Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san's company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>. They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns. </li>
<li>As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.</li>
<li>Then it fell, and hasn't recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index. </li>
</ul>


Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san's company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns. 
As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.
Then it fell, and hasn't recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami's Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toei-animation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18641:1" rel="noopener">Toei Animation (4816 JP)</a>'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services Internation (APM AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Toei Animation (4816 JP)'s prices its US$550 million secondary offering and Trial Holdings (5882 JP) IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), Samsonite (1910 HK), Alumina Ltd (AWC AU), APM Human Services Internation (APM AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

<ul>
<li>Yesterday after the close, well-known Japanese activist Murakami-san's preferred entity City Index Eleventh filed a Large Shareholder Report. </li>
<li>The blast across Bloomberg was "*AOZORA 5.4% STAKE REPORTED BY CITY INDEX ELEVENTH." Sounds exciting after the shares dropped 34% in two days earlier this month after reporting big writedowns. </li>
<li>But there has to be a question here. Why? And Why this way? And what kind of activism would be possible? </li>
</ul>


Yesterday after the close, well-known Japanese activist Murakami-san's preferred entity City Index Eleventh filed a Large Shareholder Report. 
The blast across Bloomberg was "*AOZORA 5.4% STAKE REPORTED BY CITY INDEX ELEVENTH." Sounds exciting after the shares dropped 34% in two days earlier this month after reporting big writedowns. 
But there has to be a question here. Why? And Why this way? And what kind of activism would be possible? 


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

Daiwa to Buy More Aozora (8304) Shares - Murakami-San Escapes

Murakami-san Group bought c9% of Aozora on the dip. It wasn't clear why other than a short squeeze and possible pump'n'dump but they held on. Daiwa...

Travis Lundy

Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

Aozora wrote down more, sold more, and had worse results. Guidance to Mar25 is still weak. Now Aozora is issuing shares to Daiwa Securities Group...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami's Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

Famed Activist Murakami-san bought 8.9% of Aozora in February as shares got hit on a writedown. But it hasn't measurably outperformed the Bank...

Travis Lundy

Weekly Deals Digest (03 Mar) - Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, Samsonite, Adbri, Alumina, APM

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Aozora, Outsourcing, Tsuruha, Toei, ESR, Samsonite, Weiqiao Textile, Adbri, Alumina, CSR)...

Arun George

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Is Murakami-San Going To Do A PacMetals Rug Pull on Aozora? Or Is This For Real?

Murakami-san's daughter bought 5.4% of Aozora Bank. It could be activism or it could be another pump'n'dump like Pacific Metals. It is tough to...

Travis Lundy

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