Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> announced an NBIO on the 26th Feb, before entering  into a Scheme on the 12th March. </li>
<li>Alcoa is offering  0.02854 new shares for each Alumina share, a 13% premium to undisturbed. Key shareholders Allan Gray and CITIC are supportive.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240611/pdf/064ghqhjk716lm.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.</li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) and Alcoa (AA US) announced an NBIO on the 26th Feb, before entering  into a Scheme on the 12th March. 
Alcoa is offering  0.02854 new shares for each Alumina share, a 13% premium to undisturbed. Key shareholders Allan Gray and CITIC are supportive.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 18th July. Expected implementation on the 1 August. The IE says fair &amp; reasonable.


Alumina (AWU AU)'s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa's Done Deal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

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Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).</li>
<li>The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.</li>
</ul>


The Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) IE considers Alcoa (AA US)’s scheme offer (0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share) fair and reasonable as the terms are within its valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB and Alumina/Alcoa shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Alcoa already owns most of Alumina’s sole assets (AWAC).
The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote risk. This is a done deal.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> has entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.</li>
<li>While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. </li>
<li>Regulatory approvals are a formality, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.</li>
</ul>



Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) has entered a scheme implementation deed with Alcoa (AA US) at 0.02854 Alcoa shares per Alumina share. The scheme meeting is targeted for 3Q.
While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump potential. 
Regulatory approvals are a formality, and Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) lack of support reflects HKEx listing requirements. At the last close, the gross spread was 3.4%.


Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

<ul>
<li>On the 26 February, via an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02776932-3A637267" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NBIO</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a> offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> share, a 13% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. </li>
<li>Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.</li>
</ul>


On the 26 February, via an NBIO, Alcoa (AA US) offered 0.02854 of its own shares for each Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) share, a 13% premium to last close.
Alcoa/Alumina control 60%/40% of the AWAC JV, an owner and operator of global bauxite mines and alumina refineries. Both companies have now entered into a Scheme on the same terms. 
Alcoa holds 19.9% in AWC after reaching an agreement with Allan Gray Australia. The key risks to the deal are FIRB approval and how CITIC, holding 18.9%, will respond.


Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

<ul>
<li>I have received several questions from readers on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6510:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa (AA US)</a>’s non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)</a> in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. </li>
<li>The questions primarily concerned <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-resources-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4408:1" rel="noopener">Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK)</a> voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. </li>
<li>CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  </li>
</ul>


I have received several questions from readers on Alcoa (AA US)’s non-binding proposal for Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) in the context of the current gross spread of 9.2%. 
The questions primarily concerned Citic Resources Holdings (1205 HK) voting intentions, the probability of a bump and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the transaction. 
CITIC Resources' lack of public endorsement of the transaction is due to HKEx listing requirements and not an indication of a NO vote risk.  


Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Australia

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

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Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)

Alumina (AWU AU)'s 18th July Scheme Vote. Alcoa's Done Deal

This is done. Trading almost at terms. As this is a cross-border trade, look to short Alcoa late in the US day, and buy Alumina early in the AU day.

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Scheme Vote on 18 July

The support of the substantive shareholders and the re-rating of Alcoa shares since 12 March (entry into a SID) has materially lowered the vote...

Arun George

Alumina (AWC AU): Alcoa’s Binding Proposal Aided by Alcoa’s Re-Rating

While the offer is not a knockout bid, the 15% increase in Alcoa shares lowers the headcount risk from retail opposition and lowers the bump...

Arun George

Alumina/Alcoa: Binding Agreement On The Same Terms

Reg approvals should be fine. CITIC should be supportive. Current gross/annualised spread of 3.6%/8.0%, assuming late-Aug completion. Look to short...

David Blennerhassett

Alumina (AWC AU): Further Thoughts on Alcoa’s Proposal

Readers have asked about CITIC Resources' voting intentions, the probability of a bump, and the likelihood of Aloca shareholders supporting the...

Arun George

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