Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX sees Red on Friday to  close -2.9%WoW as PCE Deflator heats up; Reality check for peak inflation camp; US 2Yr Yield highest since 2007
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 136.5 on strong USD;  BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Jan Core infl 4.2%; Fujitec: 3 directors booted 
DAILY NUGGET. Tale of two Markets: Bearish US Equities but Constructive Japan Equities.  When the data changes..


Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Bull vs Bears swings as SPX closes flat; TSLA back on track with beat; ASML comforts Semi bulls; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles, Negative Containers. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP Shippers ? Cyberagent - better future?</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET. We look at the big decarbonization push via carbon capture, and see MHI (7011) as the biggest Japan beneficiary. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Bull vs Bears swings as SPX closes flat; TSLA back on track with beat; ASML comforts Semi bulls; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles, Negative Containers. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP Shippers ? Cyberagent - better future?
DAILY NUGGET. We look at the big decarbonization push via carbon capture, and see MHI (7011) as the biggest Japan beneficiary. 


Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.</li>
<li>CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.</li>
<li>Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2023 results. Revenue declined 2.1% YoY to JPY167.6bn (vs consensus JPY176.1bn) while OP turned negative JPY1.25bn (vs consensus OP of JPY4.1bn.
CA’s largest investment to-date was for FIFA 2022 but top line growth has largely been in line with previous quarter. WAU have dropped to pre-FIFA levels.
Though AbemaTV’s monetisation strategy seems to work, the growth prospects for other two segments are concerning and likely to drag down the consolidated performance.


CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

<ul>
<li>CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year</li>
<li>Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery </li>
<li>The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema</li>
</ul>


CyberAgent Q1 loss on one-off expenses from World Cup streaming. We see Q1 as a bottom this fiscal year
Share price already discounted weak FY9/23 guidance last October and focus is now on recovery 
The World Cup was a success for the Japanese National side and for Abema


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a> announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. </li>
<li>At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown <em>likely</em> in March or April. </li>
<li>The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.</li>
</ul>



DeNA (2432 JP) announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. 
At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown likely in March or April. 
The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.


DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

Japan

FUJI MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., a member of the Fuji-Sankei Group, produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs and sells commercial spots through a network system.  The Company is advancing into digital satellite broadcasting.

KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP is a holding company established through the merger of DWAN GO and KADOKAWA. The company publishes a variety of books and magazines as well as produces movies and videos.  KADOKAWA DWANGO CORP also develops and makes int ernet communication tools for cellular phones.

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

TOEI ANIMATION CO., LTD. plans and produces animated cartoon movies.  The Company also grants broadcasting rights and licenses for other companies to produce and sell the animated characters' merchandise.  Toei Animation stages its own promotional shows and events to advertise movies.

Nippon Television Holdings Inc is a commercial television broadcaster which provides programs through a national network system.  The Company is expanding into digital satellite broadcasting. Nippon Television also operates publication and entertainment business such as concerts and exhibitions. The Company is affiliated with Yomiuri Shimbun.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

SKY Perfect JSAT Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. As a group, the Company provides broadcasting and data transmission services via satellites. SKY Perfect JSAT delivers digital TV programs including movies, music, sports and entertainment to its subscribers.

TOEI COMPANY, LTD. produces and distributes movies, television programs, and video software.  The Company also manages direct-run movie theaters.

DAIICHIKOSHO CO., LTD. manufactures, sells, and, leases karaoke equipment and software.  The Company also operates karaoke booth chains called Big Echo, provides karaoke software via cable line called DAM, and participates in broadcasting via satellite.

TV Asahi Holdings Corporation produces and broadcasts a variety of television programs mainly in the Tokyo area. The Company sells commercial spots through a network system. TV Asahi also provides patent maintenance for music publication, entertainment planning, sales of broadcasting equipment, and TV shopping.

DISH Network Corp. provides a direct broadcast satellite subscription television, audio programming and interactive television services to commercial and residential subscribers in the United States.

Beijing Enlight Media Company Limited invest, produces and distributes television programs, films and teleplays. The Company's major products include TV shows, TV entertainment programs, films and drama series.

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. operates movie theaters.  The Company operates in the United States and Latin America.

Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media Corporation Limited publishes, distributes books, publications and audio-visual products, and sells cultural goods. The Company's main products include textbooks, teaching aids, and general books.

Chinese Universe Publishing and MediaCo., Ltd. manufactures enamel-covered wires and other copper wires.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures buses and related parts.

Chinese Universe Publishing&Media (600373 CH)

TEGNA Inc. is an international broadcasting and digital media company. The Company owns and operates television and radio stations, delivering news and informative content. TEGNA also provides digital marketing solutions in the automotive, human capital and digital marketing industries for individuals and businesses.

Sun TV Network Ltd. offers television channels. The Company operates Tamil and Malayalam language channels in southern India.

China South Publishing & Media Group Company Ltd. is a media company.  The Company prints, publishes and distributes books, newspapers and journals; develops audio-visual materials; and offers digital publishing services.

Telenet Group Holding NV provides telephone and internet services through a network of fiber-optic and coaxial cable.  The company offers customized packages to businesses and individual clients in Belgium.

Eutelsat Communications is a KU-band satellite operator.  The Company offers television and radio broadcasting, video broadcasting, corporate networks, Internet access, and mobile communications.  Eutelsat serves Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, eastern North America, and South America.

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

Good Morning Japan |REALITY CHECK-Sticky Inflation! Bearish US/Bullish Japan; Win for Japan Activism

US hardlanding narrative strengthening; Kishida approval up; BOJ Gov designate Ueda to follow Kuroda path - for now; Japan Jan Core inflation ...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Off the Lows to Flat as ASML, TSLA Beats; Global Shipping Alliance Crumbles

JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 129.57; Japan Bond investors flee US; TSE to end transitional listing; Reg Bank Consol; Pressure for JP...

Mark Chadwick

CyberAgent 1QFY09/2023: Earnings Miss, Struggling Gaming and Huge FIFA Cost Add to the Woes

Despite huge cost for FIFA, AbemaTV revenue growth was nothing extraordinary. Weekly Users have already dropped to pre-FIFA levels. Even if AbemaTV...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CyberAgent (4751) | World Cup Winners

We remain bullish on CyberAgent despite weak Q1 results. The World Cup has given a lasting boost to Abema TV. We expect earnings to trend higher...

Mark Chadwick

DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

DeNA (2432) is a nice pot of assets with a small business attached. It should be better. It appears to be on its way to getting better. It is very...

Travis Lundy

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