Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.</li>
<li>All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.</li>
<li>The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 4Q and full-year FY09/2024 results yesterday. 4Q revenues beat guidance but reported OP fell below consensus due to a one-time loss of Winticket.
All three business segments have seen strong improvement but guidance for FY09/2025E is weak which we think was too conservative.
The newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan and newly launched game IPs should drive growth and we expect CA to upgrade its guidance going forward.


High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.</li>
<li>All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.</li>
<li>Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.
Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.


High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> (CA) is a Japan-based media and entertainment company offering media, internet advertising, smart games and investment development businesses in Japan.</li>
<li>The gaming business of the company has collapsed with the slowdown of hit title UMA MUSUME while titles released after UMA MUSUME have failed to perform satisfactorily.</li>
<li>Profitability of Internet advertising and media are expected recover and seems that worst is over for the games business as several titles are slated for release in the near future.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) (CA) is a Japan-based media and entertainment company offering media, internet advertising, smart games and investment development businesses in Japan.
The gaming business of the company has collapsed with the slowdown of hit title UMA MUSUME while titles released after UMA MUSUME have failed to perform satisfactorily.
Profitability of Internet advertising and media are expected recover and seems that worst is over for the games business as several titles are slated for release in the near future.


2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported 2QFY09/2024 results yesterday which shows further improvement across all three segments. Both 2Q revenue and OP beat consensus estimates, with OP by a huge margin.</li>
<li>Newly released game titles have helped further recovery in Gaming business while Media segment reported its first-ever OP since the company began investing on AbemaTV.</li>
<li>As we continue to reiterate, the worst is over for CyberAgent (CA) and we remain positive over the company’s growth prospects.</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 2QFY09/2024 results yesterday which shows further improvement across all three segments. Both 2Q revenue and OP beat consensus estimates, with OP by a huge margin.
Newly released game titles have helped further recovery in Gaming business while Media segment reported its first-ever OP since the company began investing on AbemaTV.
As we continue to reiterate, the worst is over for CyberAgent (CA) and we remain positive over the company’s growth prospects.


High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery in Gaming While Media Biz Reports Profits

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

We expect Internet Ad's profitability to improve and Media to start making profits in FY2024E. Games can't go down further as new releases should...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery in Gaming While Media Biz Reports Profits

CyberAgent's 2Q results were strong with an earnings beat. Newly released games have helped further recovery in Gaming biz while Media reported...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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High Conviction - CyberAgent: Market Overreacts to Conservative Guidance

CA's FY09/2025E guidance seems too conservative. Newly launched Abema Premium with Ads plan similar to Netflix (in 2022) should drive user and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

​CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

2024 High Conviction – CyberAgent: Worst Seems to Be Over

We expect Internet Ad's profitability to improve and Media to start making profits in FY2024E. Games can't go down further as new releases should...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery in Gaming While Media Biz Reports Profits

​CyberAgent's 2Q results were strong with an earnings beat. Newly released games have helped further recovery in Gaming biz while Media reported...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CyberAgent Inc reported strong 3QFY09/24 results with revenue and OP beating consensus. New game titles continue to perform well while Media...

CyberAgent's 2Q results were strong with an earnings beat. Newly released games have helped further recovery in Gaming biz while Media reported...