Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100UYE4.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-12-17T08%3A17%3A44Z&amp;se=2029-12-17T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=8CF7Al7qa3iep7%2Be%2FYKZuyvDIrkbe2s%2B3M%2FLLvosDIs%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">filed</a> a new LSR on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.</li>
<li>That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It's big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement. </li>
<li>And this was warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cvc-offers-1150-for-macromill-3978-wrong-price-wrong-register-expect-activism-or-an-overbid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:166322" rel="noopener">CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid</a>. Shareholder structure REALLY matters. </li>
</ul>


Today post-close, activist/engagement investor Oasis Management filed a new LSR on Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) owning 7.12% of shares as of 13-Dec-2024. Reason: Defend shareholder value, propose measures to management.
That is 7.56-7.65% of effective voting/tender rights. It's big enough to matter. Of course, the stock has not traded below terms once since full trading started post-announcement. 
And this was warned in CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid. Shareholder structure REALLY matters. 


Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

<ul>
<li>Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>. It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. </li>
<li>The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. </li>
<li>Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.</li>
</ul>


Today, CVC announced a deal to buy out Macromill, Inc (3978 JP). It is agreed and supported by management and the Board. 
The shareholder register on this stock is wide open. It is not burdened by crossholders. It IS burdened by 7 large active holders who have 55%. 
Those holders may complain about the process, the transparency, and the low price. This could be a target for an activist or a strategic overbidder.


CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its historic losing streak to nine sessions on Tuesday, falling 267 points (-0.61%) to 43,449, marking its longest skid since 1978</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> are reportedly in talks for a merger. NIssan ADR up 11% overnight.</li>
<li>Oasis has emerged as a significant shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> . The company is currently subject to a TOB from CVC Capital Partners. </li>
</ul>


The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its historic losing streak to nine sessions on Tuesday, falling 267 points (-0.61%) to 43,449, marking its longest skid since 1978

Nissan Motor (7201 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP) are reportedly in talks for a merger. NIssan ADR up 11% overnight.
Oasis has emerged as a significant shareholder of Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) . The company is currently subject to a TOB from CVC Capital Partners. 


Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renewable-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35211:1" rel="noopener">Renewable Japan (9522 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-china-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26090:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle China (2136 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimoto-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44086:1" rel="noopener">Nishimoto (9260 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK). 
Lowest spreads: Renewable Japan (9522 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP), Nishimoto (9260 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) - ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks

Japan

MACROMILL, INC. is a market research company utilizing Internet System. The Company collects and analyzes data and prepares research reports. MACROMILL also provides digital marketing solutions.

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Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

Activist Oasis has added themselves to the mix. The language in the new 7.1% filing is interesting. Noteworthy: none of the large fundamental long...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...

Mark Chadwick

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) - ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks

This week, the highest gross spreads are Arcadium Lithium (13.8%), Seven & I (11.6%), Insignia (10.8%), Henlius (10.8%), Get Nice (10.3%), ESR...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Activist Buys 7+% of Takeover Target Macromill (3978 JP)

Activist Oasis has added themselves to the mix. The language in the new 7.1% filing is interesting. Noteworthy: none of the large fundamental long...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

CVC Offers ¥1150 for Macromill (3978) - Wrong Price, Wrong Register - Expect Activism or An Overbid

The Macromill (3978) Tender Offer ends next week on the 26th. So far it has not traded below terms a single time, and hasn't traded within 1% of...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

​Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...

Mark Chadwick

Merger Arb Mondays (16 Dec) - ESR, CPMC, Fosun Tourism, Seven & I, Fuji Soft, NEC Networks

This week, the highest gross spreads are Arcadium Lithium (13.8%), Seven & I (11.6%), Insignia (10.8%), Henlius (10.8%), Get Nice (10.3%), ESR...

Arun George

Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...