Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 27th. Revenue for the quarter decreased 10.4% YoY to JPY 172.2bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 173.2bn.</li>
<li>OP declined 76.7% YoY to JPY 10.4bn vs consensus JPY 16.0bn (miss of 35%) due to decline in profits from gaming. OPM declined to 6.0% from 23.2% in 3QFY09/21.</li>
<li>Though CA has proven in the past that it can turn around its business with just one hit title, it has not yet been able to launch another hit title</li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 3QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 27th. Revenue for the quarter decreased 10.4% YoY to JPY 172.2bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 173.2bn.
OP declined 76.7% YoY to JPY 10.4bn vs consensus JPY 16.0bn (miss of 35%) due to decline in profits from gaming. OPM declined to 6.0% from 23.2% in 3QFY09/21.
Though CA has proven in the past that it can turn around its business with just one hit title, it has not yet been able to launch another hit title


CyberAgent 3Q: Revenue and OP Miss Consensus as Game Titles Struggle

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Supersized profits in the game division will of course normalise, but there are strategies to extend profits in the segment</li>
<li>At 7x EV/EBITDA we think the market has become too pessimistic on the long-term outlook for not only games, but also internet advertising and media</li>
<li>The company will release Q3 results in three days time - we expect a them to beat consensus </li>
</ul>


Supersized profits in the game division will of course normalise, but there are strategies to extend profits in the segment
At 7x EV/EBITDA we think the market has become too pessimistic on the long-term outlook for not only games, but also internet advertising and media
The company will release Q3 results in three days time - we expect a them to beat consensus 


Cyberagent (4751) | More than a One-Hit Wonder

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Berkshire appears set to exit <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a>'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.</li>
<li>The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.</li>
</ul>


Berkshire appears set to exit BYD (1211 HK) partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?

United Tractors (UNTR IJ)'s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.
The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.


Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

Travis Lundy

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>2022 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. </li>
<li>Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> entered Nikkei 225 in July 2020 after rising 30%. That was the top.</li>
<li>Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks. </li>
</ul>


2022 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. 
Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) entered Nikkei 225 in July 2020 after rising 30%. That was the top.
Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a> reported its 2QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 26th. Revenue for the quarter increased 16.9% YoY to JPY 191.1bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 185.5bn.</li>
<li>However, OP declined 11.6% YoY to JPY 25.7bn vs consensus JPY 28.5bn (miss of 9.8%) due to decline in profits from gaming. OPM worsened by 240bp to 13.5% in 2QFY09/22.</li>
<li>CyberAgent’s valuation multiples have been declining largely but WINTICKET seems to be coming up as a ticket for growth and the internet advertising business is in a path of recovery.   </li>
</ul>



CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported its 2QFY09/22 financial results after the market closed on 26th. Revenue for the quarter increased 16.9% YoY to JPY 191.1bn vs consensus revenue of JPY 185.5bn.
However, OP declined 11.6% YoY to JPY 25.7bn vs consensus JPY 28.5bn (miss of 9.8%) due to decline in profits from gaming. OPM worsened by 240bp to 13.5% in 2QFY09/22.
CyberAgent’s valuation multiples have been declining largely but WINTICKET seems to be coming up as a ticket for growth and the internet advertising business is in a path of recovery.   


CyberAgent 2Q: OP Miss Is No Big Concern as Revenue Continues to Show Potential

Japan

CyberAgent, Inc. operates blog media website, Ameba.  The Company also operates internet advertising agency, foreign exchange trading website, and creates PC and mobile contents such as advertisements and games. CyberAgent invests in companies with internet related business.

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CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)

CyberAgent 3Q: Revenue and OP Miss Consensus as Game Titles Struggle

3Q revenue and OP missed consensus as the company's gaming biz has been struggling due to absence of new hit titles. CA has not yet been able to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Cyberagent (4751) | More than a One-Hit Wonder

CyberAgent's stock price declined by 35% over the past year, as the market reigned in expectations for its hit mobile game. The market is too...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2022?

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2022 Version. This is a mark to market of the passive tracking data from domestic and international investors in...

Travis Lundy

CyberAgent 2Q: OP Miss Is No Big Concern as Revenue Continues to Show Potential

CyberAgent’s valuation multiples have been declining largely but WINTICKET seems to be coming up as a ticket for growth and the internet...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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