Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.</li>
<li>Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.</li>
<li>With the Cloud IPO on hold, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.</li>
</ul>


Optimism for improved shareholder returns through IPOs diminishes further as Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) puts the Cloud spinoff on hold.
Jack Ma's sale of 10m ADS, representing 5% of his Alibaba holdings, sparks concern. Investors should worry about his lack of optimism.
With the Cloud IPO on hold, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) is vulnerable to numerous downside catalysts, as outlined below.


Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.</li>
<li>Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.</li>
<li>Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime for more than three hours.
Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales and we expect a high growth rate for “other revenue” in 3Q23.
Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with aggressive expansion of new stores.


China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.</li>
<li>Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.</li>
<li>Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. </li>
</ul>


In-Line results were overshadowed by company's pullback from March restructuring plan and Jack ma's family trust selling shares.
Worst sell-off in a year was over-reaction as abrupt changes unnerved investors who tended to interpret the events  with excessive negative sentiments.
Valuation almost priced in a scenario where company is overtaken by PDD in faltering Chinese economy. Selling amidst this extreme pessimism is the last thing investors want in our view. 


Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI Review for December 2023 was announced on Friday 17 November. </li>
<li>There were no ADDs and no DELETEs, which was a bit of a surprise.</li>
<li>There is about 2.8% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI Review for December 2023 was announced on Friday 17 November. 
There were no ADDs and no DELETEs, which was a bit of a surprise.
There is about 2.8% one-way to trade. Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) is a sell across all three major indices.


HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);</li>
<li>Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;</li>
<li>We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.</li>
</ul>


BABA reported C3Q23 revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income in-line, 6% and (7%) vs. our est., and in-line, in-line and (14%);
Instead of appointing capable management to oversee key subsidiaries, BABA backpedalled to call off its spin-off plans;
We cut TP from US$ 127 to US$ 72, and downgrade to SELL.


[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

China

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Sell-off post results was over-reaction, as cloud IPO pullback and founder selling shares drove negative sentiments to extremely bearish end....

Eric Chen

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Hang Seng Indices announced the Dec 2023 review for the HSCEI on Friday 17 November after the close. No name changes, which is a surprise....

Travis Lundy

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba: Bull Thesis Shattered

​Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China Consumption Weekly (20 Nov 2023): Alibaba, Kuaishou, Tencent Music, JD.com, Tims China

Alibaba’s cloud servers experienced downtime. Kuaishou achieved success in the Singles Day sales. Tims China’s revenue grew strongly with...

Ming Lu

Alibaba (BABA US): Selling at This Valuation Is Last Thing You Want

Sell-off post results was over-reaction, as cloud IPO pullback and founder selling shares drove negative sentiments to extremely bearish end....

Eric Chen

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/​Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Hang Seng Indices announced the Dec 2023 review for the HSCEI on Friday 17 November after the close. No name changes, which is a surprise....

Travis Lundy

[Alibaba (BABA US, SELL, TP US$72) Rating Change]: The Casualty of Era…Downgrade to SELL

​Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Putting the Cloud spinoff on hold renders Alibaba's share price susceptible to downside catalysts, creating a vulnerable position for the company...

HSCEI Dec23 Index Review/Flows - NO ADDs, No DELETEs; ~2.5% One Way

Alibaba's Q3 revenue and profit were in line with expectations, but the company cancelled its spin-off plans and we have downgraded our rating to...