Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There were some positive takeaways from Swire stable's set of FY22 accounts; however, the Hong Kong office segment faces increased vacancy rates, and new supply in 2023.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


There were some positive takeaways from Swire stable's set of FY22 accounts; however, the Hong Kong office segment faces increased vacancy rates, and new supply in 2023.
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire Pac/Prop & Cathay FY22 Results

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>News reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.</li>
<li>The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


News reports indicate that China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.
The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.


China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

<ul>
<li>Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties</a> and, in turn, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Retailers /hoteliers will welcome the return of Chinese travellers, with ~US$250bn in annual spending. That should bode well for mall operators like Swire Properties and, in turn, Swire Pacific.
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days.  Listing Rules suggest the ratio has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days.  Listing Rules suggest the ratio has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. 
Preceding my comments on Swire are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0811/2022081100273.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  </li>
<li>What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. </li>
<li>Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  
What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. 
Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 


Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

Hong Kong

Swire Properties Limited develops and manages commercial, retail, and residential properties. The Company's investment portfolio includes office and retail premises, and serviced apartments and other residential accommodation.

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Swire Properties (1972 HK)

StubWorld: Swire Pac/Prop & Cathay FY22 Results

Swire Pac is cheap at 0.36x P/B. And expect +ve newsflow for unlisted HAECO and the beverage ops. I still prefer Swire Pac here over Prop, but...

David Blennerhassett

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening

It’s a positive development China's signature policies are being reversed. There are a lot of pent-up savings. The big question is the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

Swire Pacific has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days. Listing Rules say it has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. Stay...

David Blennerhassett

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

StubWorld: Swire Pac/Prop & Cathay FY22 Results

Swire Pac is cheap at 0.36x P/B. And expect +ve newsflow for unlisted HAECO and the beverage ops. I still prefer Swire Pac here over Prop, but...

David Blennerhassett

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Swire And China’s Opening

It’s a positive development China's signature policies are being reversed. There are a lot of pent-up savings. The big question is the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Swire's NAV Discount Further Narrows As Buyback Kicks Off

Swire Pacific has bought back B/A shares in ratios of 63/37 and 72/28 over two days. Listing Rules say it has to be higher than 76.71/23.29. Stay...

David Blennerhassett

Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme