Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.</li>
<li>Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY</li>
<li>New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line with expectations, down 27% QoQ and down 21% YoY.
Guided Q224 for €5.95 billion, down ~23% YoY. This implies H224 will have to be much stronger than H124 in order to maintain full year 2024 guidance of flat YoY
New order intake was €3.6 billion, down significantly from the €9.2 billion in the prior quarter, and challenging the narrative of a strong growth year in 2025


ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.</li>
<li>Lawrence Ho is buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco(200 HK)</a>. While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.</li>
<li>Avoid being long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.</li>
</ul>


9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.
Lawrence Ho is buying Melco(200 HK). While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
Avoid being long Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings.

Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) had a stake over US$100m in at least 16 listed Japanese stocks, amounting to a total of around US$6bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>TSE market reforms are helping underperforming Japanese firms improve profitability. </li>
<li>Japanese equities remain undervalued relative to the US with lower P/E and PEG ratios. While Japanese firms still lag on CAPEX growth, dividend growth has been higher than the US.</li>
<li>Nikkei faces headwinds from the potential strengthening of the Yen as BoJ shifts towards less accommodative policy. For now, the impact is minimal. </li>
</ul>


TSE market reforms are helping underperforming Japanese firms improve profitability. 
Japanese equities remain undervalued relative to the US with lower P/E and PEG ratios. While Japanese firms still lag on CAPEX growth, dividend growth has been higher than the US.
Nikkei faces headwinds from the potential strengthening of the Yen as BoJ shifts towards less accommodative policy. For now, the impact is minimal. 


Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The one likely inclusion is therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>. But there is more fun afoot with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The two stocks - of totally different sectors - interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns. </li>
</ul>


The March 2024 rebal is done and dusted. When announced, there were 2 prospective DELETEs for Sep 2024. Now there is only one expected DELETE, Nippon Paper Industries (3863 JP). 
The one likely inclusion is therefore Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP). But there is more fun afoot with Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035 JP). 
The two stocks - of totally different sectors - interact somewhat, both in determining Nikkei 225 direction, and their relative potential selldowns. 


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings

Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line, -27% QoQ & -21% YoY. Q224 guidance of €5.95 billion, -23% YoY > H2 will must be ++ versus H1.New orders of...

William Keating

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings. Sompo had a stake of over...

Sumeet Singh

Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...

Mint Finance

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 review now threatens to be 1 small ADD and 1 small DELETE but two-way flow of US$9bn+. The fun is on Fast Retailing and...

Travis Lundy

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ASML. Maintaining 2024 Guidance Despite Sharp Decline In New Bookings

Q124 revenues of €5.3 billion, in line, -27% QoQ & -21% YoY. Q224 guidance of €5.95 billion, -23% YoY > H2 will must be ++ versus H1.New orders of...

William Keating

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Sompo Holdings Cross-Shareholding - At Least US$8bn of Cross-Shareholding to Sell

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has asked the general insurers to reduce/eliminate their cross-shareholdings. Sompo had a stake of over...

Sumeet Singh

Despite Record Crushing Ascent, Japanese Stocks Remain Bullish

​TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...

Mint Finance

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Now 1 ADD, 1 DELETE; Fastie+TEL Still Where the Fun Is

The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 review now threatens to be 1 small ADD and 1 small DELETE but two-way flow of US$9bn+. The fun is on Fast Retailing and...

Travis Lundy

TSE market reforms boost profitability for Japanese firms, undervalued compared to US equities. Nikkei faces potential headwinds from stronger Yen...