Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba</li>
<li>Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability</li>
<li>Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies</li>
</ul>


A disastrous election outcome for the LDP may be the end for PM Ishiba
Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain, but markets overall to be weak as foreigners de-risk on the political instability
Unwitting TSMC exports to Huawei may put the spotlight back on US export restrictions for allies


Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.</li>
<li>Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.</li>
<li>With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.</li>
</ul>


The five-year data on past Bank of Japan interest rate decisions suggests that realized Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility tends to slightly and temporarily increase after a rate decision announcement.
Investors might make use of this observation by adjusting the timing of directional trades around rate decisions or by using options.
With monetary policy expected to become more active in the next months, its effect on volatility might grow.


EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. </li>
<li>Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.</li>
<li>Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422</li>
</ul>


Q324 revenues of $4.17 billion, marginally higher than guided, up 7.8% QoQ and up 19.8% YoY. 
Guided Q424 revenues of $4.3 billion at the midpoint for a 3.1% QoQ increase and a 14.4% YoY increase.
Q324 was LRCX fifth consecutive growth quarter, however they are still down ~$1.1 billion from their peak quarterly revenue in Q422


LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

<ul>
<li>Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.</li>
<li>Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.</li>
<li>Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.</li>
</ul>


Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.
Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.
Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post-Close on the 5th business day of October every year, the TSE announces the Free Float Weight review for all stocks where the FY ends in the Jan-March quarter.</li>
<li>Yesterday saw 210 decent changes to FFW (more up than down). There are still 400+ Phased Weight Reductions, 3 new adds (3663, 3993, 9341), and some share cancellation-based share-count reductions.</li>
<li>It turns out there is a LOT to trade. I see ¥2trln one-way (¥2trln net to buy on 245 names, and ¥2trln to sell on the other nearly 1,900 names). </li>
</ul>


Post-Close on the 5th business day of October every year, the TSE announces the Free Float Weight review for all stocks where the FY ends in the Jan-March quarter.
Yesterday saw 210 decent changes to FFW (more up than down). There are still 400+ Phased Weight Reductions, 3 new adds (3663, 3993, 9341), and some share cancellation-based share-count reductions.
It turns out there is a LOT to trade. I see ¥2trln one-way (¥2trln net to buy on 245 names, and ¥2trln to sell on the other nearly 1,900 names). 


The TOPIX October FFW Trade - BIG Numbers

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

The TOPIX October FFW Trade - BIG Numbers

The TOPIX Buy/Sell Trade was doing OK through mid-week last week. Then on the 17th it fell hard. That was the day after 'uncertainty" on TCM (570...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan Morning Connection: Political Bungling Par Excellence

​Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Andrew Jackson

EQD | Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Following Rate Decisions

​Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...

Gaudenz Schneider

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Q324 $4.17 billion, +7.8% QoQ, +19.8% YoY. Q424 guide $4.3 billion, +3.1% QoQ, +14.4% YoY. Despite it being their fifth growth quarter in a row,...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

The TOPIX October FFW Trade - BIG Numbers

The TOPIX Buy/Sell Trade was doing OK through mid-week last week. Then on the 17th it fell hard. That was the day after 'uncertainty" on TCM (570...

Travis Lundy

Potential end for PM Ishiba. Expect weak yen beneficiaries to gain but overall market to be weak due to political instability. Unwitting TSMC...

Data shows that Nikkei 225 volatility tends to rise after Bank of Japan rate decisions, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors as...