Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a></strong> secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December. </li>
<li>The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate. </li>
<li>Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.</li>
</ul>


After Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) secured NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; fulfilled pre-cons on the 16th December, the Circular was dispatched last night, the 22nd December. 
The EGM/H-share class meeting will take place on the 22nd January, one day past my estimate. Settlement should be on ore around the 18th Feb, a week beyond my estimate. 
Trading at a gross/annualised spread off 2.9%/20.3%. Still attractive here.


Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ping An Healthcare and Technology / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company's business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.</li>
<li>Junshi's 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.</li>
<li>If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.</li>
</ul>


Increasing revenue without increasing profits is “a big denial” of a company's business model. Unless Zai Lab significantly reduces costs and maintains revenue high growth, its investment value is low.
Junshi's 2024 revenue is likely to return to over RMB1.5 billion due to market share expansion in PD-1. Strict cost control will be the main theme for the future.
If PAGD’s share price is higher than HK$6.12, there would be arbitrage opportunity. If Ping An hopes other shareholders to choose cash dividend, future stock price may fall below HK$6.12.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) - Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor's Special Dividend?

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.</li>
<li>Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.</li>
<li>Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.</li>
</ul>


For all licensing cooperation with MNCs, we recommend that investors wait to see what MNCs' next move is before deciding whether the cooperation is really promising.
Topchoice showed good business growth in 24Q2. Our biggest concern for Topchoice is that the unit price per customer may further decrease in the future, thereby affecting revenue/profit growth.
Junshi’s sales growth picked up in 24Q1, but concerns on Junshi persist. We don't think Junshi is undervalued and its valuation should be lower than that of peers.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; </li>
<li>Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;</li>
<li>We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab (biosimilar) and VV116 (COVID)(RdRp) as unexciting; 
Phase I/II drug Tifcemalimab (TAB004/JS004)(BTLA mAb) is interesting, but may not last to reach product sales;
We acknowledge the bad news has already been priced in and raise the TP to HK$21, but JUNSHI still has unfavourable risk reward profile in our opinion.


[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest characteristic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.</li>
<li>If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. </li>
<li>Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. </li>
</ul>


The biggest characteristic of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is its strong ability of resources integration. Besides, when it comes to execution, clinical efficiency and R&amp;D productivity, Innovent deserves credit.
If having 10 big commercialized drugs are the threshold for becoming a biopharma, Innovent's upgrade from biotech to biopharma is almost complete. 
Innovent has enough cash flow over the next few years to support development, and may even turn losses into profits. So, we think that Innovent could get through “this winter”. 


Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

Currently at a 2.9% gross spread with expected payment around the third week of Feb. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) - Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor's Special Dividend?

Increasing revenue without increasing profits is a big denial of Zai Lab's business model. Junshi will rebound with strict cost control.There's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

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Henlius (2696 HK): Circ Out. 22nd Jan H-Class Meeting

Currently at a 2.9% gross spread with expected payment around the third week of Feb. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread.

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.22) - Zai Lab, Junshi, How to Choose PA Good Doctor's Special Dividend?

Increasing revenue without increasing profits is a big denial of Zai Lab's business model. Junshi will rebound with strict cost control.There's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (July.7) - MNCs' Next Move In Licensing Deals, Topchoice, Junshi's Trouble

​Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) TP Change]: Medium to near Term Outlook Is Still Cloudy at Best

We continue to view JUNSHI’s Phase III pipeline, consisting of Senaparib (JS109/IMP4297)(PARP), Ongericimab (JS002)(PCSK9), Bevacizumab...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801.HK) - Capable of Surviving “this Winter”

After continuous pullback, investors may lose interest in Innovent. However, it still has investment value based on pipeline, resources, R&D and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors should wait to see MNCs' next move before deciding on licensing deals. Topchoice's growth is positive but unit price per customer may...