Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> fiasco back in October, Hong Kong M&amp;As have received some welcome Xmas cheer of late.</li>
<li>Small-Cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cm-hi-tech-cleanroom-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44057:1" rel="noopener">CM Hi-Tech  (2115 HK)</a> secured reg approvals in record time. Then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC (906 HK)</a>'s pre-cons were satisfied on 13th December. Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)</a>'s pre-cons are also fulfilled. </li>
<li>Henlius' spread narrowed after securing NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; and again after fulfilling pre-cons this week. A 3.1% gross spread is okay. This is done. Get involved.</li>
</ul>


After the China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) fiasco back in October, Hong Kong M&amp;As have received some welcome Xmas cheer of late.
Small-Cap CM Hi-Tech  (2115 HK) secured reg approvals in record time. Then CPMC (906 HK)'s pre-cons were satisfied on 13th December. Now Shanghai Henlius (2696 HK)'s pre-cons are also fulfilled. 
Henlius' spread narrowed after securing NDRC approval on the 22nd Nov; and again after fulfilling pre-cons this week. A 3.1% gross spread is okay. This is done. Get involved.


Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

<ul>
<li>On the 24th June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK)</a> made a HK$24.60/share Offer, in cash, for H-shares not held in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>. A scrip alternative was subsequently afforded.</li>
<li>This is a pre-conditional Offer, subject to NDRC, Mofcom and SAFE - followed by a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. Henlius has announced that NDRC approval has now been secured.</li>
<li>Trading at a massive gross spread of ~21.5% compared to ~10% just prior to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>'s capitulation. This is excessive.</li>
</ul>


On the 24th June, Fosun Pharmaceutical (2196 HK) made a HK$24.60/share Offer, in cash, for H-shares not held in Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK). A scrip alternative was subsequently afforded.
This is a pre-conditional Offer, subject to NDRC, Mofcom and SAFE - followed by a Scheme-like vote for independent H-shareholders. Henlius has announced that NDRC approval has now been secured.
Trading at a massive gross spread of ~21.5% compared to ~10% just prior to China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)'s capitulation. This is excessive.


Henlius (2696 HK): The Spread Should Narrow After NDRC Approval

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are several ways for pharmaceutical companies to commercialize drugs. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages and ranked them accordingly. Among them, out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst choice.</li>
<li>After 5-6 years of commercialization, China Biotech have reached the critical point of verifying the feasibility of business models. However, some companies are falling behind. We listed them below.</li>
<li>After the failure of China TCM’s privatization, CNPGC can choose to launch another privatization after 12 months. There’re also other methods to address the horizontal competition issue with Taiji Group.</li>
</ul>


There are several ways for pharmaceutical companies to commercialize drugs. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages and ranked them accordingly. Among them, out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst choice.
After 5-6 years of commercialization, China Biotech have reached the critical point of verifying the feasibility of business models. However, some companies are falling behind. We listed them below.
After the failure of China TCM’s privatization, CNPGC can choose to launch another privatization after 12 months. There’re also other methods to address the horizontal competition issue with Taiji Group.


China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10)-Biotech Model Validation, CNPGC Need to Fulfill Commitment to Taiji

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile, CNOOC, Zto Express.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile, CNOOC, Zto Express.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 1st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics (207940 KS)</a> signed a contract manufacturing agreement worth KRW1.7T ($1.2B) with an Asian pharmaceutical company. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> has announced KRW100B ($72M) share buyback, starting October 28.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> received FDA approval for Vyloy for gastric cancer. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received FDA Fast Track designation for its RSV drug candidate, S-337395.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zai-lab-ltd-94df40cf-c15e-462f-b3de-8d2d434ae935" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36261:1" rel="noopener">Zai Lab (9688 HK)</a> announced positive topline data from global Phase 1a/1b study of ZL-1310 in small cell lung cancer. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> sheds Genscript Biotech as its majority shareholder.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) signed a contract manufacturing agreement worth KRW1.7T ($1.2B) with an Asian pharmaceutical company. Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) has announced KRW100B ($72M) share buyback, starting October 28.

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) received FDA approval for Vyloy for gastric cancer. Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received FDA Fast Track designation for its RSV drug candidate, S-337395.

Zai Lab (9688 HK) announced positive topline data from global Phase 1a/1b study of ZL-1310 in small cell lung cancer. Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) sheds Genscript Biotech as its majority shareholder.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 27)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Astellas, Otsuka, Legend, and Zai Lab

China

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co., Ltd. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops and sells small molecule drugs, antibody drug conjugates, and other products. Shanghai Junshi Biosciences markets its products worldwide.

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Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK)

Henlius (2696 HK): This Should Trade Tighter. Get Involved

A 3.1% gross spread with expected payment around mid-Feb is okay. I'd pay up to HK$24.10/share for a 15% annualised spread. This is done. Get...

David Blennerhassett

Henlius (2696 HK): The Spread Should Narrow After NDRC Approval

Currently trading at an excessive gross/annualised spread of 21.5%/39.6%, assuming late-June payment. I'd get involved here. I'd pay up to HK$22.70...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.10)-Biotech Model Validation, CNPGC Need to Fulfill Commitment to Taiji

Out-licensing early-stage pipelines is the worst option. China Biotech at a critical point in verifying business models. CNPGC has other methods to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Nov 1st): Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Xiaomi, Geely Automobile, CCB, Xinyi Solar,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 27)- Samsung Biologics, Celltrion, Astellas, Otsuka, Legend, and Zai Lab

Samsung Biologics secures largest ever contract, Celltrion announced KRW100B buyback, Astellas Pharma got label expansion approval for Vyloy,...

Tina Banerjee

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