China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PDD/1024.HK/700.HK: PDD adds an entrance that is dedicated to viewing live broadcasts (+/-/-)</li>
<li>Luckin Coffee: Luckin Coffee cooperate with OneContract Cloud to develop internal contract management system, which is intended to improve the efficiency of franchise store opening.</li>
<li>BILI: Bilibili Will Change Video Display Metrics to Measure Watch Time Instead of View Counts (-)</li>
</ul>


PDD/1024.HK/700.HK: PDD adds an entrance that is dedicated to viewing live broadcasts (+/-/-)
Luckin Coffee: Luckin Coffee cooperate with OneContract Cloud to develop internal contract management system, which is intended to improve the efficiency of franchise store opening.
BILI: Bilibili Will Change Video Display Metrics to Measure Watch Time Instead of View Counts (-)


China TMT Update-PDD/1024.HK/700.HK/Luckin/BILI: PDD Adds Live Broadcasts;Bili Changes Video Display

<ul>
<li>PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea,  negative to Shopee and Coupang (+/-/-)</li>
<li>KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, leaving more space for potential incentive policies.</li>
<li>BILI: Bilibili's top anchor achieved a single-session GMV of 28 million yuan during the 618 live-streaming sales event (+)</li>
</ul>


PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea,  negative to Shopee and Coupang (+/-/-)
KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, leaving more space for potential incentive policies.
BILI: Bilibili's top anchor achieved a single-session GMV of 28 million yuan during the 618 live-streaming sales event (+)


China/Asia TMT Update-PDD/CPNG/SE/BEKE/BILI:PDD's Temu Plans to Come to ASEAN and South Korea

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Further evidence of BILI’s user base peaking reinforces our bearish view on its growth outlook.</li>
<li>BILI’s business model is broken and we believe significant downsizing is unavoidable in the next 12- 18 months to achieve profitability.</li>
<li>The company will survive as a leaner and slightly profitable business valued at high single-digit P/E. We still see tremendous downside from here and advise investors to avoid the stock.</li>
</ul>


Further evidence of BILI’s user base peaking reinforces our bearish view on its growth outlook.
BILI’s business model is broken and we believe significant downsizing is unavoidable in the next 12- 18 months to achieve profitability.
The company will survive as a leaner and slightly profitable business valued at high single-digit P/E. We still see tremendous downside from here and advise investors to avoid the stock.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Cracks in Business Model

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; </li>
<li>Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; </li>
<li>We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; 
Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; 
We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.


BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili reported 1Q23 results on 1 Jun. Total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.1bn in 1Q23, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net loss narrowed by 38% YoY to RMB1.0bn in 1Q23, beating CMBI/consensus estimate by 6/10%.</li><li>The better-than-expected profitability was due to Bili’s strategy to prioritize quality user growth and monetization improvement. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BiliBili reported 1Q23 results on 1 Jun. Total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.1bn in 1Q23, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.Adjusted net loss narrowed by 38% YoY to RMB1.0bn in 1Q23, beating CMBI/consensus estimate by 6/10%.The better-than-expected profitability was due to Bili’s strategy to prioritize quality user growth and monetization improvement. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Prioritizing profitability and quality user growth

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

China TMT Update-PDD/1024.HK/700.HK/Luckin/BILI: PDD Adds Live Broadcasts;Bili Changes Video Display

PDD/1024.HK/700.HK: PDD adds an entrance dedicated to viewing live broadcasts (+/-/-);Luckin Coffee: Luckin Coffee cooperate with OneContract...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China/Asia TMT Update-PDD/CPNG/SE/BEKE/BILI:PDD's Temu Plans to Come to ASEAN and South Korea

PDD/CPNG/SE: PDD's Temu plans to come to Southeast Asia and South Korea，KE Holding: New home sales remain lukewarm in May, BILI: Bilibili's top...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BILIBILI (BILI US): Cracks in Business Model

BILI's business model is broken and the odds are high for a downsizing in its attempt to achieve profitability. We still see tremendous downside to...

Eric Chen

BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution

We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) – Prioritizing profitability and quality user growth

BiliBili reported 1Q23 results on 1 Jun. Total revenue was flat YoY at RMB5.1bn in 1Q23, in line with CMBI/consensus estimate.

CMB International

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