China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[Bilibili (BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) TP Change]: The Launch Of "Uma Musume" May Face More Delay

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3)Update]: Still Struggling to Balance Growth and Monetization

[Bilibili(BILI US, SELL, TP US$12.3) Review]: E-Commerce Ads Aren’t Sufficient to Hide Other Issues

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US, SELL, TP US$15.4)]: Long-Term Challenge Exists Amid Short-Term Catalysts

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US) Target Price Change]: Minor Protection Would Be a Pending Issue

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; </li>
<li>Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; </li>
<li>We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.</li>
</ul>


BILI reported 1Q23 revenue/non-GAAP net income (4.2%)/in-line vs. our estimate, but BILI’s suggested 2Q23 revenue and gross margin are (10%) and (3.5ppts) lower vs. our prior est.; 
Gaming will be BILI’s major swing factor.  Although BILI indicated that 2Q23 gaming revenue could decline 10% YoY, we expect that gaming revenue will still grow 6%~ YoY in 2023.; 
We maintain SELL rating and cut TP to US$ 14.1. 1Q23’s earning indicates that BILI’s cost saving measures have led to declining MAU.


BILI US, SELL, TP US$14.1, Target Price Change: Thriving Gaming Market Makes Limited Contribution