Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> reported 3Q2021 results which saw revenues increase 61.4% YoY to RMB5.2bn while operating losses for the quarter increased to 36.1% of revenues vs 33.6% in 3Q2020. </li>
<li>Mobile games revenue declined YoY for the first time in 2Q2021, however, the segment has resumed growth with a 9.1% YoY increase in third quarter.</li>
<li>Except for mobile games, the other three segments saw strong growth in top line with advertising revenues growing more than 100% during the quarter</li>
</ul>



Bilibili Inc (BILI US) reported 3Q2021 results which saw revenues increase 61.4% YoY to RMB5.2bn while operating losses for the quarter increased to 36.1% of revenues vs 33.6% in 3Q2020. 
Mobile games revenue declined YoY for the first time in 2Q2021, however, the segment has resumed growth with a 9.1% YoY increase in third quarter.
Except for mobile games, the other three segments saw strong growth in top line with advertising revenues growing more than 100% during the quarter


Bilibili: Mobile Games Resumes Growth; Losses Widening in 3Q Is in Line with Peers

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> are among the largest underweight holdings among active EM investors</li>
<li>Combined with this, both stocks are underowned compared to peers.  Relatively large index weights haven't been enough to lure active managers to invest in the numbers we might expect.  </li>
<li>Among existing holders, conviction levels are low, with only a small number of managers holding either stock as a leading weight.</li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK) and NIO Inc (NIO US) are among the largest underweight holdings among active EM investors
Combined with this, both stocks are underowned compared to peers.  Relatively large index weights haven't been enough to lure active managers to invest in the numbers we might expect.  
Among existing holders, conviction levels are low, with only a small number of managers holding either stock as a leading weight.


Meituan Dianping & Nio Inc:  The Definitive EM Underweights

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Value added service and advertising revenue grew rapidly in 3Q21.</li>
<li>However, we believe there are problems in the way BILI loses money.</li>
<li>We also believe BILI is overvalued based on other internet companies’ price / sales ratios.</li>
</ul>


Value added service and advertising revenue grew rapidly in 3Q21.
However, we believe there are problems in the way BILI loses money.
We also believe BILI is overvalued based on other internet companies’ price / sales ratios.


Bilibili: (BILI): 3Q21, Revenue and Users Growing Fast, Loss Problem Larger than It Looks

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<ul>
<li>Riots Games’ Valorant continues to grow, having apparently overtaken CS:GO in gross billings in January of this year. </li>
<li>The game is also being extremely well received in Asia overall with Japan, ASEAN and India demonstrating strong interest in addition to Korea.</li>
<li>With this momentum on its side, Riot also appears to be testing the waters on metaverse in a partnership with Wave.</li>
</ul>


Riots Games’ Valorant continues to grow, having apparently overtaken CS:GO in gross billings in January of this year. 
The game is also being extremely well received in Asia overall with Japan, ASEAN and India demonstrating strong interest in addition to Korea.
With this momentum on its side, Riot also appears to be testing the waters on metaverse in a partnership with Wave.


Tencent – Riot Grows Valorant and Dips Its Toe in the Metaversal Waters

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
An NDR About Nothing: A competitor held a non-deal roadshow for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent]. Management only addressed matters discussed at its challenged 3Q21 results; </li>
<li>
Elephant In The Room:Management continues to avoid any serious discussion of  mainland China’s broad restrictions on FinTech – which represents a growing 30.4% of revenue; and </li>
<li>
Stop The Spin Doctoring:No matter Tencent’s spin, a financial holding company represents significant downside risks as earnings will compress and capital requirements increase.</li>
</ul>



An NDR About Nothing: A competitor held a non-deal roadshow for Tencent Holdings (700.HK) [Tencent]. Management only addressed matters discussed at its challenged 3Q21 results; 

Elephant In The Room:Management continues to avoid any serious discussion of  mainland China’s broad restrictions on FinTech – which represents a growing 30.4% of revenue; and 

Stop The Spin Doctoring:No matter Tencent’s spin, a financial holding company represents significant downside risks as earnings will compress and capital requirements increase.


Tencent Holdings – Seinfeld-Ian Roadshow

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Bilibili: Mobile Games Resumes Growth; Losses Widening in 3Q Is in Line with Peers

Bilibili's operating losses widened during 3Q2021. We have observed that Huya's profit margins declined during the quarter while Douyu's paying...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Meituan Dianping & Nio Inc: The Definitive EM Underweights

Large benchmark weights have not been enough to lure active managers to invest in either Nio or Meituan in the numbers we would expect. They stand...

Steven Holden

Bilibili: (BILI): 3Q21, Revenue and Users Growing Fast, Loss Problem Larger than It Looks

Value added service and advertising grew rapidly in 3Q21, but we believe there are problems in the way BILI loses money. BILI is overvalued based...

Ming Lu

Tencent – Riot Grows Valorant and Dips Its Toe in the Metaversal Waters

Valorant continues to grow, having apparently overtaken CS:GO in gross billings in January of this year while Riot also appears to be testing the...

Mio Kato

Tencent Holdings – Seinfeld-Ian Roadshow

TENCENT: Tencent addressed matters it had already discussed at its challenged 3Q21 results. Unfortunately there was no serious discussion of...

Thomas J. Monaco

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