Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In 3Q21, revenue unexpectedly slowed down, as struggling education clients did not have advertising budget.</li>
<li>Tencent highlighted its game expansion outside China.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will be stable due to the reorganization in April.</li>
</ul>


In 3Q21, revenue unexpectedly slowed down, as struggling education clients did not have advertising budget.
Tencent highlighted its game expansion outside China.
We believe the operating margin will be stable due to the reorganization in April.


Tencent (700 HK): 3Q21, Negative Surprise on WeChat Ad, Reduce Upside to 25% from 36%

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

<ul>
<li>
<em><strong>Results Weaker: </strong></em>Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 3Q21 GAAP net income declined another CNY 5.2 bn (6.7%) on a linked quarter basis. </li>
<li>
<em><strong>Challenges: </strong></em>Results were challenged by a cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; increased losses in associates; higher impairment charges; a higher tax rate and weaker online advertising; and    </li>
<li>
<em><strong>Elephant In Room: </strong></em>China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". Tencent is following Alibaba in its formation of a financial holding company. </li>
</ul>



Results Weaker: Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] 3Q21 GAAP net income declined another CNY 5.2 bn (6.7%) on a linked quarter basis. 

Challenges: Results were challenged by a cost of revenue increase; operating expense increase; increased losses in associates; higher impairment charges; a higher tax rate and weaker online advertising; and    

Elephant In Room: China's crackdown on capital markets has rapidly expanded under the broad narrative of "financial stability". Tencent is following Alibaba in its formation of a financial holding company. 


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Weilong Delicious Global Holdi / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weilong-delicious-global-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33378:1" rel="noopener">Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK)</a> is a leading spicy snack food company in China. It is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable companies in the snack food industry in China, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.  </p><p>Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion, according to press reports. Weilong’s shareholders include CPE, Hillhouse, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, Yunfeng Capital and Sequoia Capital China. </p><p>Generation Z and the millennials are the primary consumers in the snack food industry in China, as they account for 38.2% of China’s population but 69.2% of snack food consumption, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The retail sales value of China’s spicy snack food industry is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2025 and reach RMB257.0 billion by 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. As the leading snack food brand as measured by brand awareness among those at or under the age of 25, Weilong is well-placed to tap this market opportunity. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation. Weilong is also relatively unscathed from the spate of recent regulations that have decimated other sectors, such as the technology and education sector. On balance, we think that Weilong’s fundamentals are attractive.</p></div>

Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK) is a leading spicy snack food company in China. It is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable companies in the snack food industry in China, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.  Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion, according to press reports. Weilong’s shareholders include CPE, Hillhouse, Tencent (700 HK), Yunfeng Capital and Sequoia Capital China. Generation Z and the millennials are the primary consumers in the snack food industry in China, as they account for 38.2% of China’s population but 69.2% of snack food consumption, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. The retail sales value of China’s spicy snack food industry is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2020 to 2025 and reach RMB257.0 billion by 2025, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. As the leading snack food brand as measured by brand awareness among those at or under the age of 25, Weilong is well-placed to tap this market opportunity. Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and strong cash generation. Weilong is also relatively unscathed from the spate of recent regulations that have decimated other sectors, such as the technology and education sector. On balance, we think that Weilong’s fundamentals are attractive.

Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<div>
<p>ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
</div>
<div>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes,</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/59814/ANE%20Logistics%20Pre-IPO%20-%20Margins%20Expanding%20but%20Appears%20to%20Be%20Falling%20Behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind,</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-phip-updates-underlying-growth-is-far-from-clear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear</a> and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-weird-disclosures-continue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note</p>
</div>


ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.

We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes,



ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind, 

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear and
ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue

In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note


ANE Logistics IPO Trading - No Demand, We Would Stay Clear

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.</p><p>This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

In the past few weeks, Facebook changed its name to Meta, showing its emphasis on the concept as central to its future. Nvidia and AMD have been skyrocketing as investors speculate that in the future, all the large platforms will be putting huge money behind the concept. AMD just got a big win at Facebook to help power its Metaverse. Facebook is putting soooo much behind the metaverse…its almost a shame they couldn’t just buy Roblox.This was a fine fine quarter for Roblox, the platform is aging up, growth accelerating internationally, platform extensions abound. But…consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively…not the type of revisions that merits a 30% move higher. 8% short interest doesn’t sound like much, but 4 days to cover on a relatively thin float seems to be the culprit. We would take profits on Roblox and look to re-engage in the $80s.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Tencent (700 HK): 3Q21, Negative Surprise on WeChat Ad, Reduce Upside to 25% from 36%

In 3Q21, revenue unexpectedly slowed down, as struggling education clients did not have advertising budget. Tencent highlighted its game expansion...

Ming Lu

Tencent Holdings – Increasing Risk

TENCENT: Tencent's 3Q21 GAAP net income declined 6.7% QOQ, and were challenged by increases in cost of revenue, operating expenses, losses in...

Thomas J. Monaco

Weilong Delicious IPO Initiation: Tasty Bite

Weilong is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $1 billion. Weilong offers an appealing mix of robust top-line growth, high margins and...

Arun George

ANE Logistics IPO Trading - No Demand, We Would Stay Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

Roblox 3Q21: 30% Move for THESE Results?

Fine quarter for Roblox, but consensus bookings and revenue estimates for FY22 rose 1% and 3.5% respectively. We would take profits on Roblox and...

Aaron Gabin

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