Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.3% as of Aug 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi, Ganfeng Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 145 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 109.3% as of Aug 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi, Ganfeng Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 23rd):Huaneng Power, Goldwind, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO, Hua Hong Semi

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Overall trend (Weak) (Revenue/PAT growth (YoY): 7%/0% and ex-OMCs: 9%/13%) Performance of coverage companies in Q1FY25 clearly reflected that benefits of soft input costs are over and PAT growth (ex-OMCs) has largely converged with revenue growth</li><li>This indicates future earnings growth will come majorly from demand pickup</li><li>FY25 earnings growth will have to be more volume and topline led</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall trend (Weak) (Revenue/PAT growth (YoY): 7%/0% and ex-OMCs: 9%/13%) Performance of coverage companies in Q1FY25 clearly reflected that benefits of soft input costs are over and PAT growth (ex-OMCs) has largely converged with revenue growthThis indicates future earnings growth will come majorly from demand pickupFY25 earnings growth will have to be more volume and topline ledContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Tracker - Q1FY25: Input Cost Benefits Consumed

Equity Bottom-Up

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) distributes natural gas. The Company provides gas to domestic customers such as hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, flight kitchens, and restaurants. MGL serves customers in India.

<ul><li>The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M</li><li>We expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformance</li><li>We anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3MWe expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformanceWe anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26EContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

<ul><li>FY24 can only be described as a challenging year for Genesis Energy (GNE).</li><li>Its Unit 5 gas generation plant suffered a six month outage, the Kupe KS-9 well was unsuccessful, and FY24 followed a record hydro generation year.</li><li>Unsurprisingly, the FY24 result was well down on FY23. Current market conditions are more suited to GNE's back-up generation fleet, so FY25 is looking better, albeit the record high prices means there is a greater range of possible earnings outcomes than usual. </li></ul>

FY24 can only be described as a challenging year for Genesis Energy (GNE).Its Unit 5 gas generation plant suffered a six month outage, the Kupe KS-9 well was unsuccessful, and FY24 followed a record hydro generation year.Unsurprisingly, the FY24 result was well down on FY23. Current market conditions are more suited to GNE's back-up generation fleet, so FY25 is looking better, albeit the record high prices means there is a greater range of possible earnings outcomes than usual. 

Genesis Energy - The Only Way Is Up — FY24 Result

Mercury NZ Ltd provides utility services. The Company generates and supplies electricity from hydro, geothermal, gas-fired, and wind power stations, as well as owns and manages bio-energy power plants. Mighty River Power serves customers throughout New Zealand.

<ul><li>Disappointing FY25 guidance, relative to market expectations, dominated Mercury’s FY24 result.</li><li>MCY is being exposed to tail risks not seen in the market since 2008, with the extreme market conditions impacting MCY’s 1Q25 performance.</li><li>The cost of replacing hydro generation is higher than ever before, and that is the driver of the EBITDAF and dividend misses. </li></ul>

Disappointing FY25 guidance, relative to market expectations, dominated Mercury’s FY24 result.MCY is being exposed to tail risks not seen in the market since 2008, with the extreme market conditions impacting MCY’s 1Q25 performance.The cost of replacing hydro generation is higher than ever before, and that is the driver of the EBITDAF and dividend misses. 

Mercury - Holding on to a Taniwha Tail — FY24 Result