India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.</li>
<li>Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips</li>
</ul>


Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.
In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.
Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips


Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>India is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), both in the government and private sectors. This slowdown, largely attributed to the general elections in the Q1 of FY25.</li>
<li>The central government has set an ambitious target of 50.5% capex growth in the second half of FY25 to compensate for the sluggish first half.</li>
<li>The capex slowdown has resulted in reduced investment in crucial infrastructure projects, impacting key sectors such as defense, roads, and railways.</li>
</ul>


India is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), both in the government and private sectors. This slowdown, largely attributed to the general elections in the Q1 of FY25.
The central government has set an ambitious target of 50.5% capex growth in the second half of FY25 to compensate for the sluggish first half.
The capex slowdown has resulted in reduced investment in crucial infrastructure projects, impacting key sectors such as defense, roads, and railways.


Thematic Report: India's Capex Growth Ambitions Vs. Reality

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2024 is expected to clocked in at 4.5-5.0% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 5MFY25 average to 7.91% compared to 28.62% in 5MFY24.</li><li>During Nov 2024, Food Inflation is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM mainly on the back of rise in Eggs price, Pulse Moong, Tomatoes, and potatoes prices in the range of 5-35%.</li><li>Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness approx. 0.11% MoM growth due to increase in LPG prices by 7% MoM, while electricity prices are expected to decline on the back of negative fuel cost adjustment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Nov 2024 is expected to clocked in at 4.5-5.0% YoY (+0.4% MoM), taking 5MFY25 average to 7.91% compared to 28.62% in 5MFY24.During Nov 2024, Food Inflation is expected to increase by 0.2% MoM mainly on the back of rise in Eggs price, Pulse Moong, Tomatoes, and potatoes prices in the range of 5-35%.Housing, water, electricity and gas segment is expected to witness approx. 0.11% MoM growth due to increase in LPG prices by 7% MoM, while electricity prices are expected to decline on the back of negative fuel cost adjustment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy: Nov 2024 CPI Expected Between 4.5-5.0% YoY

<ul><li>Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$330mn, up by 39% YoY and by 13% MoM in Oct-2024. These monthly IT exports in Oct-2024 are higher than last 12-month average of US$287mn. This is the 13th consecutive month of YoY IT export growth, starting from October 2023.</li><li>This takes 4MFY25 IT exports to ~US$1.21bn, up by 35% YoY.</li><li>YoY jump in IT exports is due to (1) IT export companies growing client base globally, especially in GCC region, (2) relaxation in the permissible retention limit by the State Bank of Pakistan, increasing it from 35% to 50% in the Exporters' Specialized Foreign Currency Accounts, and (3) stability in PKR encouraging IT exporters to bring higher portion of profits back to Pakistan.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan recorded monthly IT exports of US$330mn, up by 39% YoY and by 13% MoM in Oct-2024. These monthly IT exports in Oct-2024 are higher than last 12-month average of US$287mn. This is the 13th consecutive month of YoY IT export growth, starting from October 2023.This takes 4MFY25 IT exports to ~US$1.21bn, up by 35% YoY.YoY jump in IT exports is due to (1) IT export companies growing client base globally, especially in GCC region, (2) relaxation in the permissible retention limit by the State Bank of Pakistan, increasing it from 35% to 50% in the Exporters' Specialized Foreign Currency Accounts, and (3) stability in PKR encouraging IT exporters to bring higher portion of profits back to Pakistan.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Technology: Oct-24 IT Exports up by 39% YoY to US$330mn; 4MFY25 exports up by 35% YoY

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. </li>
<li>Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.</li>
<li>We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. </li>
</ul>


A key medium-term driver of share price is earnings estimate trajectory - in particular, "earnings inflections" - i.e. the trajectory of earnings estimates changing directions. 
Different Asian markets have had different estimate trajectories. But most suffered estimate cuts since August/September 2024, coinciding with the US Dollar appreciation and the spike in US yields.
We argue that investors need to watch out for Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and India for earnings estimate increases. India's could decline in the near term and commence an uptrend later. 


Asian Equities: In Search of Earnings Estimate Uptrends