Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV / Equity Bottom-Up

Betterware de Mexico SAB de CV sells household products. The Company offers furniture, sink, electronics, utensils, laundry equipment, cleaners, bath accessories, personal care, and other goods. Betterware de Mexico serves customers in Mexico.

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Thursday.</li><li>We believe the Betterware division has continued to drive higher sales and improved gross margin via price increases, which when combined with continued product newness and higher SKU levels, should drive another solid quarter.</li><li>We also believe JAFRA Mexico has remained a market share gainer, with a continued focus on leveraging their leading position in fragrance to drive incremental purchases in new categories.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 1Q25 (March) results after the close on Thursday.We believe the Betterware division has continued to drive higher sales and improved gross margin via price increases, which when combined with continued product newness and higher SKU levels, should drive another solid quarter.We also believe JAFRA Mexico has remained a market share gainer, with a continued focus on leveraging their leading position in fragrance to drive incremental purchases in new categories.

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Showing How to Win; No Tariff Issues Here; Reiterate Buy, PT

Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

Independent Insight Provider

Ewan Markson-Brown

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy. </li>
<li>From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.</li>
<li>Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.</li>
</ul>


Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy. 
From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.


Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tata Sons will reinvest Rs. 43,900 crore received from TCS dividends into new-age businesses, this strategic capital shift aims to fuel long-term growth across tech, digital, and clean energy sectors.</li>
<li>Delhivery is acquiring Ecom Express for Rs. 5,000 crore to expand scale and reduce operating costs in order to strengthen its logistics footprint and improves profitability with low integration risk.</li>
<li>Adani Group has proposed Rs. 50,000 crore investments in Assam after talks with CM Sarma. The plan promises major infrastructure upgrades and job creation across the Northeast.</li>
</ul>


Tata Sons will reinvest Rs. 43,900 crore received from TCS dividends into new-age businesses, this strategic capital shift aims to fuel long-term growth across tech, digital, and clean energy sectors.
Delhivery is acquiring Ecom Express for Rs. 5,000 crore to expand scale and reduce operating costs in order to strengthen its logistics footprint and improves profitability with low integration risk.
Adani Group has proposed Rs. 50,000 crore investments in Assam after talks with CM Sarma. The plan promises major infrastructure upgrades and job creation across the Northeast.


#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push

Mexico
Insights on Mexico

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Showing How to Win; No Tariff Issues Here; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 1Q25 (March) results...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook

Milei is rewriting the EM playbook. Inflation is falling, markets are rising, and reform is real. Argentina isn’t the model—it’s the rupture....

Ewan Markson-Brown

#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push

Tata Sons to reinvest TCS dividends for growth, Delhivery acquires Ecom Express for expansion, Adani Group plans major investments in Assam for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Showing How to Win; No Tariff Issues Here; Reiterate Buy, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company reporting 1Q25 (March) results...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook

Milei is rewriting the EM playbook. Inflation is falling, markets are rising, and reform is real. Argentina isn’t the model—it’s the rupture....

Ewan Markson-Brown

#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push

​Tata Sons to reinvest TCS dividends for growth, Delhivery acquires Ecom Express for expansion, Adani Group plans major investments in Assam for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Tata Sons to reinvest TCS dividends for growth, Delhivery acquires Ecom Express for expansion, Adani Group plans major investments in Assam for...