Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Paradise Co., Ltd. is a gaming company that operates casino facilities in South Korea and Kenya.  The Company offers games, such as roulette, black jack, baccarat, and big wheel.  Paradise, through its subsidiaries, operates retail and hotel business.

<ul>
<li>On 2 July, Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS) announced that it will construct a new high end luxury hotel in Seoul spending about 500 billion won to 550 billion won. </li>
<li>We believe that this construction of the new luxury hotel will have a negative impact on shares of Paradise. </li>
<li>Rather than investing a large sum of money to build a new hotel, many investors would rather have preferred Paradise to increase share buybacks and dividends. </li>
</ul>


On 2 July, Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS) announced that it will construct a new high end luxury hotel in Seoul spending about 500 billion won to 550 billion won. 
We believe that this construction of the new luxury hotel will have a negative impact on shares of Paradise. 
Rather than investing a large sum of money to build a new hotel, many investors would rather have preferred Paradise to increase share buybacks and dividends. 


Paradise: Expansion into High End Hotel Likely to Destroy Shareholder Value

Amorepacific Corporation develops, manufactures, and exports skin care, make-up, and fragrance products. The Company also produces and markets personal care and health-related products, such as shampoos, soaps, toothpastes, and health teas.

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2024.</li>
<li>Although the discount on the preferred shares versus the common shares has been gradually narrowing in the past decade, this discount increased from end of 2021 to 1 April 2024.</li>
<li>On a longer timeframe (3-4 years), we believe this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make gains.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trades involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2024.
Although the discount on the preferred shares versus the common shares has been gradually narrowing in the past decade, this discount increased from end of 2021 to 1 April 2024.
On a longer timeframe (3-4 years), we believe this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make gains.


Gap Trades in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2024

Event-Driven

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

Lotte Tour Development Co., Ltd. provides various tour package service. The Company franchises travel agencies, offers home-based travel businesses, and provides leisure-travel information.  The Company also engages in property development and building management and operates duty-free shop business.

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)

<ul>
<li>Lotte Tour Development announced that it will conduct a major asset revaluation which could positively impact its share price. </li>
<li>The company's assets will increase to 2.39 trillion won and equity will increase to 569.3 billion won (up more than 8x) at end of 1Q 2024 due to asset revaluation.</li>
<li>As a result of the asset revaluation, the company's balance sheet will improve significantly and this likely result in many investors taking another look at the company for potential investments. </li>
</ul>


Lotte Tour Development announced that it will conduct a major asset revaluation which could positively impact its share price. 
The company's assets will increase to 2.39 trillion won and equity will increase to 569.3 billion won (up more than 8x) at end of 1Q 2024 due to asset revaluation.
As a result of the asset revaluation, the company's balance sheet will improve significantly and this likely result in many investors taking another look at the company for potential investments. 


Lotte Tour Development: A Major Asset Revaluation Resulting in More Than 8X Increase in Equity

<ul>
<li>On 7 March, Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. </li>
<li>Paradise will be excluded from KOSDAQ150 when it makes the switch to KOSPI. However, it is not certain if and when the company will be included in KOSPI200.</li>
<li>All in all, we would argue that the valuations are not especially appealing for Paradise, despite the sharp pick-up in business in 2023.</li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Paradise Co Ltd (034230 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. 
Paradise will be excluded from KOSDAQ150 when it makes the switch to KOSPI. However, it is not certain if and when the company will be included in KOSPI200.
All in all, we would argue that the valuations are not especially appealing for Paradise, despite the sharp pick-up in business in 2023.


Paradise Announces A Switch in Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hotel Shilla Co.,Ltd operates and manages hotels in Seoul and Jeju. The Company also operates duty free shops, bakeries, restaurants, and catering and laundry service businesses.

<ul>
<li>There are a few stocks in Korea that have outperformed/ underperformed their peers and could be added to or deleted from global passive portfolios next month.</li>
<li>There could be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-materials" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36806:1" rel="noopener">EcoPro Materials</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanjin-kal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19086:1" rel="noopener">Hanjin KAL</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-shilla-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:107:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Shilla</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearl-abyss-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24391:1" rel="noopener">Pearl Abyss</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd-new" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33479:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mipo-dockyard" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2755:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mipo Dockyard</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanon-systems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11506:1" rel="noopener">Hanon Systems</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jyp-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17598:1" rel="noopener">Jyp Entertainment</a> could be sold.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of flow on the stocks and passive trackers will need to trade over 7 days of ADV in most stocks.</li>
</ul>


There are a few stocks in Korea that have outperformed/ underperformed their peers and could be added to or deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
There could be buying in EcoPro Materials and Hanjin KAL while Hotel Shilla, Pearl Abyss, F&amp;F, Hyundai Mipo Dockyard, Hanon Systems and Jyp Entertainment could be sold.
There will be a lot of flow on the stocks and passive trackers will need to trade over 7 days of ADV in most stocks.


Korea: Stocks with Near-Term Potential Passive Flows

Beneficiaries of Tourism Revival in South Korea