Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Donald Trump's approach to fulfilling his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war is crucial.</li><li>This approach could directly affect the escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.</li><li>It could also impact the situation in the Taiwan Strait.</li></ul>

Donald Trump's approach to fulfilling his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war is crucial.This approach could directly affect the escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.It could also impact the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

<ul>
<li>The Republican sweep, both in Congress and the White House, seems to have sparked a risk-on attitude across financial markets of late</li>
<li>But Republican presidencies have coincided more regularly with periods of post-war economic downturns</li>
<li>And the disparate US equity market performance enveloping presidential cycles is a nagging puzzle   </li>
</ul>


The Republican sweep, both in Congress and the White House, seems to have sparked a risk-on attitude across financial markets of late
But Republican presidencies have coincided more regularly with periods of post-war economic downturns
And the disparate US equity market performance enveloping presidential cycles is a nagging puzzle   


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

<ul><li>The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.</li><li>The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.</li><li>Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.</li></ul>

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates and PMIs than on unemployment and underlying inflationary pressures.The Flash HICP for November may not rise as expected due to base effects such as German package holidays, which is considered a temporary blip.Despite most data warning against a 50bp cut, the RBNZ is likely to make this cut again, positioning it as an outlier.

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024 alone <strong>Microsoft, Google, and Meta</strong> collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.</li>
<li>Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips</li>
</ul>


Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.
In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.
Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips


Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

<ul><li>Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.</li><li>The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.</li><li>Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.</li></ul><p></p>

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% inflation target.The ECB hopes this will subside swiftly in 2025, with productivity growth and squeezed profit margins helping contain inflation. But these hopes seem set to be disappointed.Persistent wage pressures should prevent a 50bp rate cut in December and limit further cuts. Less dovish fundamentals feed bullish Euro seasonality, magnified by positioning.

Ireland
Insights on Ireland

The US And The ‘Axis of Upheaval’

Donald Trump's approach to fulfilling his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war is crucial. This approach could directly affect the escalating...

Alastair Newton

The Next Four Years...

Let the debate on the prospect of “Winter is Coming” or/and “A Golden Age” under "Trumpism" commence as 2024 winds down.

Thomas Lam

HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates...

Phil Rush

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

The US And The ‘Axis of Upheaval’

Donald Trump's approach to fulfilling his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war is crucial. This approach could directly affect the escalating...

Alastair Newton

The Next Four Years...

Let the debate on the prospect of “Winter is Coming” or/and “A Golden Age” under "Trumpism" commence as 2024 winds down.

Thomas Lam

HEW: Misaligned Data Focus For FX

The Euro has weakened over the past week due to markets focusing on hawkish price and wage inflation, with more emphasis on activity growth rates...

Phil Rush

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

​Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

EA Wages Are Too Inflationary For 50bp

Upwards revisions to Euro area labour costs and a jump in negotiated wage settlements extend cost growth inconsistent with a sustainable return to...

Phil Rush

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.