Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


AI Generated Content, Heteronomics

Heteronomics AI

AI Generated Content

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, meeting expectations but disappointing those market participants who had positioned for another rate cut amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty.</li><li>The decision reflects a careful balance between weakening domestic demand and inflation risks from tariff-related cost increases, with short-term inflation expectations having risen despite moderating core inflation.</li><li>Future policy adjustments will be guided by the evolving trade landscape, the extent of demand erosion and cost pass-through, and the anchoring of inflation expectations, with the Bank highlighting its limited role in mitigating trade-driven shocks.</li></ul><div><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></div>

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, meeting expectations but disappointing those market participants who had positioned for another rate cut amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty.The decision reflects a careful balance between weakening domestic demand and inflation risks from tariff-related cost increases, with short-term inflation expectations having risen despite moderating core inflation.Future policy adjustments will be guided by the evolving trade landscape, the extent of demand erosion and cost pass-through, and the anchoring of inflation expectations, with the Bank highlighting its limited role in mitigating trade-driven shocks.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Canada: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25

Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. </li>
<li>Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.</li>
<li>Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.</li>
</ul>


Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds. 
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.


Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Andean Precious Metals  / Equity Bottom-Up

Andean Precious Metals Corp. provides mining services. The Company specializes in precious metals production, development, and exploration services. Andean Precious Metals operates in Canada.

<ul>
<li>Andean reported its Q1 production results, producing 21.4Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets.</li>
<li>Production was lower than expected but APM stated it remains on track to achieve its 2025 guidance, noting that Q1 is typically its weakest quarter.</li>
<li>APM plans to release its Q1 financials after market on May 6th, with the conference call being held on May 7th at 9AM ET.</li>
</ul>


Andean reported its Q1 production results, producing 21.4Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets.
Production was lower than expected but APM stated it remains on track to achieve its 2025 guidance, noting that Q1 is typically its weakest quarter.
APM plans to release its Q1 financials after market on May 6th, with the conference call being held on May 7th at 9AM ET.


Canada
Insights on Canada

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

Canada: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, meeting expectations but disappointing those market participants who had positioned for another...

Heteronomics AI

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

APM: Q1 Production Results

Andean reported its Q1 production results, producing 21.4Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets.

Atrium Research

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

Canada: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75%, meeting expectations but disappointing those market participants who had positioned for another...

Heteronomics AI

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

Gold stocks are on the investment radar as the tariff wars fuel inflationary concerns. Find out how accounting quality is a useful screening tool...

Mark Jolley

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

APM: Q1 Production Results

Andean reported its Q1 production results, producing 21.4Koz AuEq between its Golden Queen and San Bartolome assets.

Atrium Research

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...