Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Republican sweep, both in Congress and the White House, seems to have sparked a risk-on attitude across financial markets of late</li>
<li>But Republican presidencies have coincided more regularly with periods of post-war economic downturns</li>
<li>And the disparate US equity market performance enveloping presidential cycles is a nagging puzzle   </li>
</ul>


The Republican sweep, both in Congress and the White House, seems to have sparked a risk-on attitude across financial markets of late
But Republican presidencies have coincided more regularly with periods of post-war economic downturns
And the disparate US equity market performance enveloping presidential cycles is a nagging puzzle   


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.</li>
<li>In the third quarter of 2024 alone <strong>Microsoft, Google, and Meta</strong> collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.</li>
<li>Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips</li>
</ul>


Big Tech companies are already generating significant revenue from AI. Microsoft expects to reach $10 billion in AI revenue by the next quarter, making it their fastest-growing area.
In the third quarter of 2024 alone Microsoft, Google, and Meta collectively spent over $42 billion on AI infrastructure, primarily on building data centers and purchasing computing equipment.
Companies are projecting continued high spending on AI into 2025 to meet growing demand. However, challenges remain, including supply constraints for AI chips


Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly</li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. Invest accordingly


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

<ul>
<li>The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.</li>
<li>China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” </li>
<li>The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.</li>
</ul>


The pace of recovery in 200 millimeters appears to have been very weak. Customers continue to respect LTA prices but we have to push out delivery timing which impacts volumes.
China appears to have developed their own capability to fabricate wafers. Quality does not necessarily appear to be very good but there is strong pressure to comply with “Buy China” 
The recovery in legacy applications has been surprisingly slow. At this stage we don't know whether it is a slow recovery or in fact that there won't be a recovery.


SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold prices have staged multi-year breakouts in multiple currencies, indicating a long-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>In addition, gold is on the verge of staging relative breakouts against global equity markets that point to multi-year outperformance ahead.</li>
<li>The U.S. macro outlook calls for a re-acceleration of inflation, which is also positive for gold.</li>
</ul>


Gold prices have staged multi-year breakouts in multiple currencies, indicating a long-term bullish outlook.
In addition, gold is on the verge of staging relative breakouts against global equity markets that point to multi-year outperformance ahead.
The U.S. macro outlook calls for a re-acceleration of inflation, which is also positive for gold.


Bulgaria
Insights on Bulgaria

The Next Four Years...

Let the debate on the prospect of “Winter is Coming” or/and “A Golden Age” under "Trumpism" commence as 2024 winds down.

Thomas Lam

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold

Gold prices have staged multi-year breakouts in multiple currencies, indicating a long-term bullish outlook. It's also on the verge of staging...

Cam Hui

The Next Four Years...

Let the debate on the prospect of “Winter is Coming” or/and “A Golden Age” under "Trumpism" commence as 2024 winds down.

Thomas Lam

Thematic Report: AI Wave- Big Tech's Spending Spree

​Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.

Sudarshan Bhandari

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

SUMCO Despairs On Legacy Rebound, EVs, China, Visibility Etc...

There isn't much point in speculating about things we don't understand. We don't know whether it is a slow recovery or if there won't be a...

William Keating

2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold

Gold prices have staged multi-year breakouts in multiple currencies, indicating a long-term bullish outlook. It's also on the verge of staging...

Cam Hui

Big Tech companies like Microsoft are seeing massive revenue growth from AI, with projections of $10 billion in AI revenue by next quarter.