Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>High taxes, government spending and borrowing in Britain, along with Euro area inflation, are driving hawkish market moves. The US market isn't keeping pace, partially due to disappointing payroll data.</li><li>The US election results are uncertain, increasing the risk of Trump contesting the outcome and potential exploitation by other countries during the political void.</li><li>This political uncertainty is not expected to impact the Bank of England or Federal Reserve's decision to defy low unemployment and cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.</li></ul>

High taxes, government spending and borrowing in Britain, along with Euro area inflation, are driving hawkish market moves. The US market isn't keeping pace, partially due to disappointing payroll data.The US election results are uncertain, increasing the risk of Trump contesting the outcome and potential exploitation by other countries during the political void.This political uncertainty is not expected to impact the Bank of England or Federal Reserve's decision to defy low unemployment and cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

<ul><li>September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and unemployment news.</li><li>Co-movement in inflation and activity surprises reinforces the hawkish signal’s strength, especially as the news was broad-based across countries and core measures.</li><li>The case for a 50bp cut in December has evaporated before forming in the data. A 25bp cut remains likely before resilience urges a more gradual and limited easing cycle.</li></ul><p></p>

September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and unemployment news.Co-movement in inflation and activity surprises reinforces the hawkish signal’s strength, especially as the news was broad-based across countries and core measures.The case for a 50bp cut in December has evaporated before forming in the data. A 25bp cut remains likely before resilience urges a more gradual and limited easing cycle.

Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

<ul>
<li>Central banks in Developed Markets and Emerging Markets are either cutting, maintaining or hiking their respective policy rates</li>
<li>I introduce an improved Monetary Diffusion Indicator of Normal policy (MDIN) to encapsulate the dispersion of central bank policy globally</li>
<li>The MDIN, which goes back more than five decades and captures roughly 90% of central banks globally in GDP-terms, slipped to 21 in October</li>
</ul>


Central banks in Developed Markets and Emerging Markets are either cutting, maintaining or hiking their respective policy rates
I introduce an improved Monetary Diffusion Indicator of Normal policy (MDIN) to encapsulate the dispersion of central bank policy globally
The MDIN, which goes back more than five decades and captures roughly 90% of central banks globally in GDP-terms, slipped to 21 in October


Macklem, Orr, Gongsheng, Ueda, Bailey, Powell, Lagarde, Nabiullina and MDIN

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India’s power sector faced T&amp;D losses averaging 20% between FY11 and FY19, while the ideal range is 6-8%. This is one of the biggest opportunity in Power sector.</li>
<li>As per the National Smart Grid Mission, the central government aims to install 25 crore smart meters by the end of 2025.</li>
<li>Detailed analysis includes indian listed companies creating Smart Meter along with their order book and comparison. </li>
</ul>


India’s power sector faced T&amp;D losses averaging 20% between FY11 and FY19, while the ideal range is 6-8%. This is one of the biggest opportunity in Power sector.
As per the National Smart Grid Mission, the central government aims to install 25 crore smart meters by the end of 2025.
Detailed analysis includes indian listed companies creating Smart Meter along with their order book and comparison. 


Thematic Report: Smart Meters- Mega Trend

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>BPCL Reduces the Russian Oil Intake Amid the Refinery Maintenance</li>
<li>Tata Power Acquires 40% Stake in Bhutan’s Khorlochhu Hydro Power Project</li>
<li>Ambuja Cements Aims for 140 Million Tonne Capacity by 2028</li>
</ul>


BPCL Reduces the Russian Oil Intake Amid the Refinery Maintenance
Tata Power Acquires 40% Stake in Bhutan’s Khorlochhu Hydro Power Project
Ambuja Cements Aims for 140 Million Tonne Capacity by 2028


# 69 India Insight: Tata Power in Hydro Project, Ambuja Capacity Expansion, BPCL Reduces Oil Intake

Belgium
Insights on Belgium

HEW: Trumping Blighty

High taxes, government spending and borrowing in Britain, along with Euro area inflation, are driving hawkish market moves. The US market isn't...

Phil Rush

EA Reflation Squeezes Out 50bps

September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and...

Phil Rush

Macklem, Orr, Gongsheng, Ueda, Bailey, Powell, Lagarde, Nabiullina and MDIN

The MDIN, which synthesizes DM and EM central bank policy dispersion, offers insights into worldwide interest rate policy cycles.

Thomas Lam

Thematic Report: Smart Meters- Mega Trend

India's power sector has high T&D losses, creating a major opportunity for improvement. The government aims to install 25 crore smart meters by...

Nimish Maheshwari

# 69 India Insight: Tata Power in Hydro Project, Ambuja Capacity Expansion, BPCL Reduces Oil Intake

BPCL reduces Russian oil intake due to refinery maintenance, Tata Power buys stake in Bhutan hydro project, Ambuja Cements targets 140 million...

Sudarshan Bhandari

HEW: Trumping Blighty

High taxes, government spending and borrowing in Britain, along with Euro area inflation, are driving hawkish market moves. The US market isn't...

Phil Rush

EA Reflation Squeezes Out 50bps

September’s disinflationary Euro area news broadly unwound in October, with the HICP rate’s surprising rise to 2% y-o-y adding to hawkish GDP and...

Phil Rush

Macklem, Orr, Gongsheng, Ueda, Bailey, Powell, Lagarde, Nabiullina and MDIN

The MDIN, which synthesizes DM and EM central bank policy dispersion, offers insights into worldwide interest rate policy cycles.

Thomas Lam

Thematic Report: Smart Meters- Mega Trend

​India's power sector has high T&D losses, creating a major opportunity for improvement. The government aims to install 25 crore smart meters by...

Nimish Maheshwari

# 69 India Insight: Tata Power in Hydro Project, Ambuja Capacity Expansion, BPCL Reduces Oil Intake

​BPCL reduces Russian oil intake due to refinery maintenance, Tata Power buys stake in Bhutan hydro project, Ambuja Cements targets 140 million...

Sudarshan Bhandari

India's power sector has high T&D losses, creating a major opportunity for improvement. The government aims to install 25 crore smart meters by...

BPCL reduces Russian oil intake due to refinery maintenance, Tata Power buys stake in Bhutan hydro project, Ambuja Cements targets 140 million...