Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop</li>
<li>The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment</li>
<li>But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     </li>
</ul>


The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not     


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul><li>The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded a response.</li><li>Central bankers are no more aware of the trade policy outlook than markets, but they are more aware of the potential inflationary effects and limits to effective easing.</li><li>Time will reveal the tariffs and impact, allowing the agile ECB to tackle this rather than just the shadow it has cast on anticipatory market pricing. We still expect a June cut.</li></ul><p></p>

The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded a response.Central bankers are no more aware of the trade policy outlook than markets, but they are more aware of the potential inflationary effects and limits to effective easing.Time will reveal the tariffs and impact, allowing the agile ECB to tackle this rather than just the shadow it has cast on anticipatory market pricing. We still expect a June cut.

<ul><li>An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.</li><li>The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.</li><li>EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.</li></ul><p></p>

An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.

Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

<ul><li>Donald Trump's recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.</li><li>However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.</li><li>This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.</li></ul>

Donald Trump's recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.</li>
<li>Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.</li>
<li>However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.</li>
</ul>


No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.


Belgium
Insights on Belgium

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

Do we need to distinguish between shocks and pretexts to better navigate the current environment of heightened uncertainty?

Thomas Lam

ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks

The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded...

Phil Rush

EA Disinflation Confirmed For ECB Doves

An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing...

Phil Rush

US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

Donald Trump's recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US...

Alastair Newton

A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War

No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war. A game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a...

Cam Hui