Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.</li><li>Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.</li><li>The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.</li></ul>

Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.

Global Macro Strategist, Westbourne Research Services

Sharmila Whelan

Global Macro Strategist

Macroeconomic, Geopolitical and Policy Forecasting

Westbourne Research Services

Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical and policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy. Located in London, UK and serving clients globally. Our knowledge is deep, spanning all asset classes and key industrial sectors. Our perspective is global. Our presence is expansive, with 30 years analysing and working in developed and emerging markets. We are uniquely India and China specialists.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.</li>
<li>Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.</li>
<li>Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.</li>
</ul>


Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do -  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.


HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

<ul>
<li>President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.</li>
<li>One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year</li>
<li>We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.</li>
</ul>


President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.


Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The US imposed sweeping 2025 tariffs, including a 27% reciprocal tariff on India, raising average import tariffs from 2.5% to over 15%.</li>
<li>Tariffs are expected to raise US consumer prices by 2.3%, cut household income by $3,800 annually, and lower real GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in 2025.</li>
<li>Global trade dynamics are shifting. India may see a 50 bps GDP hit, but relatively smaller impact versus peers opens space for strategic realignment with US trade flows.</li>
</ul>


The US imposed sweeping 2025 tariffs, including a 27% reciprocal tariff on India, raising average import tariffs from 2.5% to over 15%.
Tariffs are expected to raise US consumer prices by 2.3%, cut household income by $3,800 annually, and lower real GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in 2025.
Global trade dynamics are shifting. India may see a 50 bps GDP hit, but relatively smaller impact versus peers opens space for strategic realignment with US trade flows.


Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP

Belgium
Insights on Belgium

HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such...

Phil Rush

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP

US imposed high tariffs on India, impacting consumer prices, household income, and GDP growth. Global trade dynamics changing, India can...

Nimish Maheshwari

HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such...

Phil Rush

Europe Vs NATO & Trump - U/W Bonds

​Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

Sharmila Whelan

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

​President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

Bondcritic

Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP

​US imposed high tariffs on India, impacting consumer prices, household income, and GDP growth. Global trade dynamics changing, India can...

Nimish Maheshwari

Investors should be wary of Europe's fiscal position and increasing defense spending. Stay underweight European government bonds and overweight...

President Trump's tariffs announcement has led to pessimism about the US economy, with recommendations to invest in short-rated bonds, variable...

US imposed high tariffs on India, impacting consumer prices, household income, and GDP growth. Global trade dynamics changing, India can...