Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

JNBY Design Limited designs, promotes, and sells textile products. The Company offers apparels, footwear, and other accessories for women and children. JNBY Design markets its products globally.

<ul>
<li>Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).</li>
<li>Besides <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a>, most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stella-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7610:1" rel="noopener">Stella International (1836 HK)</a>  has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crystal-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25979:1" rel="noopener">Crystal International (2232 HK)</a> at 38%, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lever-style-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35760:1" rel="noopener">Lever Style (1346 HK)</a>  at 58%.</li>
</ul>


Share prices are gradually stabilizing, influenced by news reports suggesting that Trump may eventually reduce tariffs on China (although trust overhang with Trump statements remains an issue).
Besides Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK), most companies have halted capital allocation decisions like buybacks till more clarity emerges.

Stella International (1836 HK)  has the highest US revenue exposure at 47%, followed by Crystal International (2232 HK) at 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK)  at 58%.


HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can't Shake The Tariff Overhang

Ginebra San Miguel Inc. manufactures and distributes liquor products. Ginebra San Miguel's products are marketed under brand names such as Ginebra San Miguel, Anejo Rum, Tondena Manila Rum, VIVA!, and Magnolia FunChum.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ginebra-san-miguel-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23029:1" rel="noopener">Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM)</a> reported steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.6% and 10.8% YoY.  Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.6% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.</li>
<li>EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.2%, while the company saw a massive increase in cash and investments to 16.2 bn pesos from 12.8 bn pesos, led by working capital inflows. </li>
<li>Trading at 10x PE with 20% of the market cap in cash and investments, and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR, this is a name to explore. </li>
</ul>



Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) reported steady growth in Q1 2025, with revenues and profits increasing by 7.6% and 10.8% YoY.  Volume/Pricing grew 1%/6.6% YoY as company offset excise-duty increases.
EBITDA margins were maintained at 16.2%, while the company saw a massive increase in cash and investments to 16.2 bn pesos from 12.8 bn pesos, led by working capital inflows. 
Trading at 10x PE with 20% of the market cap in cash and investments, and demonstrating pricing power/profit growth of 10-15% CAGR, this is a name to explore. 


Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth

Geo Energy Resources Limited is a coal mining specialist based in Indonesia. The Company owns and operates coal mines.

<ul>
<li>We examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>, an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. </li>
<li>For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). </li>
<li>Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). </li>
</ul>


We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 


Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.</li>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
China's Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
China's March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.


Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

<ul>
<li>China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.</li>
<li>COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.</li>
<li>Positive Q1 FY25 results from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a target="_blank">First Quantum Minerals (FM CN)</a>, and <a target="_blank">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a>'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.</li>
</ul>


China's Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)'s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.


Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

A buy-side analyst with over 15 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Sameer Taneja
Equity, Bottom-up Analyst
• Investics Research

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener May 2025: Can't Shake The Tariff Overhang

We identify twelve high-yield, net cash or low-net debt stocks in Hong Kong's apparel and footwear sector, analyzing their exposure to the US amid...

Sameer Taneja

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) Q1 2025: Steady Pricing Led Growth

We summarize the Q1 FY25 results for Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM). Trading at 10x FY25 PE with 20% of its mkt cap in cash, 5.5% dividend yield, and...

Sameer Taneja

Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

The company announced a positive profit alert for Q1 FY25 (https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Encouraging lending in China, a rebound in steel production, and reduced trade tensions provide a basis for iron ore prices to increase from 98 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

We maintain a bullish stance on copper, as China's March TSF data suggests a push for more stimulus. Additionally, rising COMEX spreads and the...

Sameer Taneja