Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

A buy-side analyst with over 15 years of experience investing in Asian markets and specializing in the mid-small cap space, emphasizing value investing in companies with good free cash flows/dividends and long-term holding horizons. 
Exempt Financial Adviser (EFA) under CrossASEAN Research Pte Ltd. It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Geo Energy: Indonesian Coal Market Beneficiary Trading at Distressed Multiple

Geo Energy (GERL SP): Distressed Bonds and Share Price Versus Optimistic Management; Who Is Right?

Morning Views Asia: Gcl New Energy Holdings, Geo Energy Resources, Sritex

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>, an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. </li>
<li>For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). </li>
<li>Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). </li>
</ul>


We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 


Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28