Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

World War Three: Part 1 – Falling Fertility

World War Three: Part 2 – Growth, No Deus Ex Machina

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/world-war-three-part-1-falling-fertility" target="_blank">Part 1 – Falling Fertility</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/world-war-three-part-2-growth-no-deus-ex-machina" target="_blank">Part 2 - Growth, No Deus Ex Machina</a>, we highlight the shifting demographic profiles in Europe, the Americas and Asia. The number of pensioners is not decreasing and fertility rate declines are not reversing. Meanwhile, governments in the West have been slow to increase retirement ages even with increasing life expectancy.Pensioners in the developed world will receive payments long after their retirement but as nearly all of these payments have to be met from contributions made through a general tax system, the blend of falling growth rates and an ageing society is disastrous. Despite belief to the contrary, North America is not in a sweet spot but its near term outlook is nowhere near as bad as Europe.In Asia an entirely different picture emerges, one that makes it the most important growth story of the next half century.

Following Part 1 – Falling Fertility and Part 2 - Growth, No Deus Ex Machina, we highlight the shifting demographic profiles in Europe, the Americas and Asia. The number of pensioners is not decreasing and fertility rate declines are not reversing. Meanwhile, governments in the West have been slow to increase retirement ages even with increasing life expectancy.Pensioners in the developed world will receive payments long after their retirement but as nearly all of these payments have to be met from contributions made through a general tax system, the blend of falling growth rates and an ageing society is disastrous. Despite belief to the contrary, North America is not in a sweet spot but its near term outlook is nowhere near as bad as Europe.In Asia an entirely different picture emerges, one that makes it the most important growth story of the next half century.

World War Three: Part 3 - Demographics Baked in the Cake