Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Former Head of Asia ex-Japan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD/Touch Research at Barclays and Citi Bank, Former Head of Technology at 國金證券

Tesla's Won't Fix It's Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

Tesla (TSLA) No Longer Prevails, a Dilemma and Touch Challenges Ahead

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;</li>
<li>2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.</li>
<li>
<strong>Near term risks to remain</strong>: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?</li>
</ul>


Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.

Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?


Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?