Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Third & Final Part

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states Financials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

Following the downgrade of the Credit Outlook of Saudi Arabia by S&amp;P concerns continue to mount as to the stability of countries in the region should oil prices stay at or below current levels for the next 3-5 years, a &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; scenario as opposed to the $100+ oil long-run oil prices that were expected at the middle of last year.This note analyses some of the key drivers that will determine the different scenarios that may play out in the Middle East and which paths are more likely.Whereas in previous instances higher oil prices were bad for peace in the region, it may now be that we are in for a rocky road unless prices rebound sharply, which may in itself drive up prices.

What happens to the Gulf if oil prices stay lower for longer?