Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!

Vedanta (VEDL) Offer Coming To A Close: Watch For Antics

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive

Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More

Vedanta Promoter Launches Offer to Buy 4.98%

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Three weeks ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> reached new two-year highs reaching to INR 195.00/share. I wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-soars-beyond-indicative-open-offer-level-not-expensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48342" rel="noopener">Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive</a> that the stock was indeed quite a bit higher than the Indicative Open Offer level of INR160 - above which it had traded since December - but that it was not expensive. 
Q3 earnings had turned out to be quite respectable (there is a recap in that insight linked above), the stock was iterating towards the end of the year when the "cutoff" for the official Dividend Distribution Policy would be implemented (or ignored/dismissed), and if implemented, would mean a large dividend to VEDL shareholders, and because commodity prices continued to rise along with demand, the prospect of Q4 earnings being quite strong was certainly on the table. 
Since then, oil, iron ore, aluminum, copper are all up, and zinc and silver are down slightly. Theoretically, the combination of all these factors should mean VEDL would outperform its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> subsidiary in the short term, and indeed that has been the case. 
There is new news in the past two weeks which has caused further speculation, and the shares have risen 15% from that insight through the 10 March close. Importantly, in that same period, the Peer Basket has not moved one iota.
As a result, the VEDL vs Peers or VEDL vs HZ+Peers Price Ratio has now risen to the highest level since the covid-crash selloff and is shouting distance from the average level for all of 2019.
More comments follow.

Three weeks ago Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) reached new two-year highs reaching to INR 195.00/share. I wrote in Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive that the stock was indeed quite a bit higher than the Indicative Open Offer level of INR160 - above which it had traded since December - but that it was not expensive. 
Q3 earnings had turned out to be quite respectable (there is a recap in that insight linked above), the stock was iterating towards the end of the year when the "cutoff" for the official Dividend Distribution Policy would be implemented (or ignored/dismissed), and if implemented, would mean a large dividend to VEDL shareholders, and because commodity prices continued to rise along with demand, the prospect of Q4 earnings being quite strong was certainly on the table. 
Since then, oil, iron ore, aluminum, copper are all up, and zinc and silver are down slightly. Theoretically, the combination of all these factors should mean VEDL would outperform its Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) subsidiary in the short term, and indeed that has been the case. 
There is new news in the past two weeks which has caused further speculation, and the shares have risen 15% from that insight through the 10 March close. Importantly, in that same period, the Peer Basket has not moved one iota.
As a result, the VEDL vs Peers or VEDL vs HZ+Peers Price Ratio has now risen to the highest level since the covid-crash selloff and is shouting distance from the average level for all of 2019.
More comments follow.

Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y