Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

Vedanta To Eliminate Its ADRs - Creates VERY Interesting Possibilities

Vedanta's Plan to Eliminate ADRs - THE Trade

Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive

Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y

Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>The promoter's Open Offer to buy up to 651mm shares (17.51%) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> at Rs 235/share is coming to a close. </p><p>With two days to go, the shares today closed at Rs. 231.75/share as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> closed up 6.07%, briefly touching Rs 300/share intraday. </p><p>As of the close of 5 April, there were just 3,364 Orders (different offers of shares at Rs 235.00 in the system) having offered a total of 112.76mm shares (81.44mm shares confirmed, 31.32mm shares yet to be confirmed). </p><p>Shares may be at a 52-week high, not quite quadruple their covid-crash lows and not quite triple their post-Delisting Offer Failure lows on a dividend-adjusted price basis...</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/955/original/Screenshot+2021-04-05+at+9.09.20+PM.png?1617628176" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198955"></figure></section><p>... but as readers may surmise in the charts and tables below the fold, VEDL is not terribly expensive vs peers or its own peer-relative history. </p><p>And that is when it is still loaded with cash from a dividend it is supposed to but has not yet paid out. Given zinc prices, and commodity prices in general, and the dynamics of sooner-rather-than-later sale of the government's stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>, one might expect a substantial dividend to make the post-sale optics look better/easier (there would be no reason for VEDL to pay a multiple of book of cash or debt in the HZ accounts). </p><p>There may be antics in the next day or two. There have been antics on this stock grouping before which appear to have been aimed at helping undecided investors make a decision about the risk of holding shares. I would not be surprised to see that again. </p><p>Much more below the fold.</p><hr><p><em>Earlier insights in the series, from older to most recent, are at the links below:</em></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 103.2px;"><h3>The Post Delisting Offer History of Insights on VEDL</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">11 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-proposal-offer-fails-we-think" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44060" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think)</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">13 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedl-delisting-fail-day1-reading-between-the-lines-of-the-trading-data" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">21 Oct 2020</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-limited-caught-in-economic-purgatory-but-governance-hell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44350" rel="noopener">Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">9 Dec 2020</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vaulting-near-2020-highs-on-higher-commods-higher-forecasts-but-open-offer-remote" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45511" rel="noopener">Vedanta Vaulting Near 2020 Highs On Higher Commods, Higher Forecasts, But Open Offer Remote?</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">23 Dec 2020</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-promoter-launches-offer-to-buy-4-98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46600" rel="noopener">Vedanta Promoter Launches Offer to Buy 4.98%</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">11 Jan 2021</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vedl-in-promoter-to-launch-an-open-offer-to-buy-more" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46922" rel="noopener">Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">19 Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-soars-beyond-indicative-open-offer-level-not-expensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48342" rel="noopener">Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">13 Mar 2021</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vedl-awaits-open-offer-revision-now-less-event-y-more-commodity-y" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49017" rel="noopener">Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 103.2px;">17 Mar 2021</td>
<td style="width: 600.8px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-vedl-open-offer-raised-in-price-and-size" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49279" rel="noopener">Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

The promoter's Open Offer to buy up to 651mm shares (17.51%) of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) at Rs 235/share is coming to a close. With two days to go, the shares today closed at Rs. 231.75/share as Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) closed up 6.07%, briefly touching Rs 300/share intraday. As of the close of 5 April, there were just 3,364 Orders (different offers of shares at Rs 235.00 in the system) having offered a total of 112.76mm shares (81.44mm shares confirmed, 31.32mm shares yet to be confirmed). Shares may be at a 52-week high, not quite quadruple their covid-crash lows and not quite triple their post-Delisting Offer Failure lows on a dividend-adjusted price basis...... but as readers may surmise in the charts and tables below the fold, VEDL is not terribly expensive vs peers or its own peer-relative history. And that is when it is still loaded with cash from a dividend it is supposed to but has not yet paid out. Given zinc prices, and commodity prices in general, and the dynamics of sooner-rather-than-later sale of the government's stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN), one might expect a substantial dividend to make the post-sale optics look better/easier (there would be no reason for VEDL to pay a multiple of book of cash or debt in the HZ accounts). There may be antics in the next day or two. There have been antics on this stock grouping before which appear to have been aimed at helping undecided investors make a decision about the risk of holding shares. I would not be surprised to see that again. Much more below the fold.Earlier insights in the series, from older to most recent, are at the links below:
The Post Delisting Offer History of Insights on VEDL

Date
Title


11 Oct 2020

Vedanta Delisting Proposal/Offer Fails (We Think) 


13 Oct 2020
VEDL Delisting Fail Day1 - Reading Between the Lines of the Trading Data


21 Oct 2020

Vedanta Limited - Caught in Economic Purgatory but Governance Hell? 


9 Dec 2020
Vedanta Vaulting Near 2020 Highs On Higher Commods, Higher Forecasts, But Open Offer Remote?


23 Dec 2020
Vedanta Promoter Launches Offer to Buy 4.98%


11 Jan 2021
Vedanta (VEDL IN) Promoter To Launch an Open Offer To Buy More


19 Feb 2021
Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive


13 Mar 2021

Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y 


17 Mar 2021

Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size! 



Vedanta (VEDL) Offer Coming To A Close: Watch For Antics