Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Return to Real Labour Begins in Jul-20

UK: Still Defying Dismally Dire Expectations

UK: Collapse Less Apocalyptic than Feared

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in April, contrary to all expectations, including my forecast from the consensus’ bullish fringe. The UR is now over 2pp below the BoE’s embarrassingly wayward nowcast from May.</li>
<li>Furlough has caused a collapse in hours worked rather than employment, with wages also depressed to a lesser extent. I am still much less pessimistic on Q2 but expect the UR peak to occur in Q3 as support rolls off.</li>
<li>Universal credit determinations are still trending down. An ongoing emphasis on the cumulative excess claims exaggerates the size of the shock, with biased reportage helping to damp the relevance of less-bleak coincident data.</li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in April, contrary to all expectations, including my forecast from the consensus’ bullish fringe. The UR is now over 2pp below the BoE’s embarrassingly wayward nowcast from May.
Furlough has caused a collapse in hours worked rather than employment, with wages also depressed to a lesser extent. I am still much less pessimistic on Q2 but expect the UR peak to occur in Q3 as support rolls off.
Universal credit determinations are still trending down. An ongoing emphasis on the cumulative excess claims exaggerates the size of the shock, with biased reportage helping to damp the relevance of less-bleak coincident data.


UK: Unemployment Still Resists Rising in Apr-20