Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Return to Real Labour Begins in Jul-20

UK: Recovery Lags in Most Sectors Through June

UK: 40% Recovery in May-20 Split Unevenly

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% again in June. Employment declined by 220k 3m-o-3m, but those people left the labour force, preventing a UR effect.</li>
<li>Total hours worked have crashed by 19% with underemployment rising, but only to levels usually consistent with about a 5% UR. Data from PAYE returns remain much worse but have little relationship with the official data.</li>
<li>Vacancies have only bounced lightly from their lows. Maintaining this level would be consistent with the UR eventually spiking towards about 8%.</li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% again in June. Employment declined by 220k 3m-o-3m, but those people left the labour force, preventing a UR effect.
Total hours worked have crashed by 19% with underemployment rising, but only to levels usually consistent with about a 5% UR. Data from PAYE returns remain much worse but have little relationship with the official data.
Vacancies have only bounced lightly from their lows. Maintaining this level would be consistent with the UR eventually spiking towards about 8%.


UK: Its Non-Jobs, Not No Jobs in 2Q20