Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Return to Real Labour Begins in Jul-20

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li><em>The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in Aug-20, with the 0.2pp surprise associated with revisions from a methodological change. The underlying rise was slightly smaller than we assumed, but still marked an acceleration consistent with our 4.8% forecast for Q3.</em></li>
<li><em>Vacancies are rising but remain consistent with a peak UR between 7% and 8%. Stricter lockdown restrictions than we assume could breach that, though. A normalisation in average wages implies unit cost pressures that offset the disinflationary implications.</em></li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in Aug-20, with the 0.2pp surprise associated with revisions from a methodological change. The underlying rise was slightly smaller than we assumed, but still marked an acceleration consistent with our 4.8% forecast for Q3.
Vacancies are rising but remain consistent with a peak UR between 7% and 8%. Stricter lockdown restrictions than we assume could breach that, though. A normalisation in average wages implies unit cost pressures that offset the disinflationary implications.


UK: Unemployment Accelerates in Aug-20