Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Return to Real Labour Begins in Jul-20

UK: Unemployment Still Resists Rising in Apr-20

UK: Recovery Lags in Most Sectors Through June

UK: 40% Recovery in May-20 Split Unevenly

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in May, contrary to all expectations yet again. The UR is now over 3pp below the BoE’s ludicrous nowcast from May.</li>
<li>Last month, economists latched onto falling employment in the early PAYE returns as evidence of collapse, despite extremely low correlations. Those data have been revised up and confirmed to be well-wide of the mark.</li>
<li>Alternative indicators of earnings and vacancies perform much better. The former indicates a substantial bounce in June while the latter’s recovery has faltered.</li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in May, contrary to all expectations yet again. The UR is now over 3pp below the BoE’s ludicrous nowcast from May.
Last month, economists latched onto falling employment in the early PAYE returns as evidence of collapse, despite extremely low correlations. Those data have been revised up and confirmed to be well-wide of the mark.
Alternative indicators of earnings and vacancies perform much better. The former indicates a substantial bounce in June while the latter’s recovery has faltered.


UK: Employment Flipping the V-Narrative