Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Another surprise 0.2pp jump in the UK unemployment rate to 4.2% in June suggests the labour market suffered even before the BoE’s panicked 50bp hike.</li>
<li>Weakness still looks genuine to us, with 0.1pp monthly steps as the current underlying trend. However, underemployment and job vacancy data haven’t softened recently. </li>
<li>The tightness and second-round effects stoked another wage surge, which the BoE needs to break. This inflation pressure should encourage a 25bp hike in September.</li>
</ul>


Another surprise 0.2pp jump in the UK unemployment rate to 4.2% in June suggests the labour market suffered even before the BoE’s panicked 50bp hike.
Weakness still looks genuine to us, with 0.1pp monthly steps as the current underlying trend. However, underemployment and job vacancy data haven’t softened recently. 
The tightness and second-round effects stoked another wage surge, which the BoE needs to break. This inflation pressure should encourage a 25bp hike in September.


UK: Jobs Melt with Wages Burning Hot