Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Core Raises Inflation Again in Sep-22

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation surged beyond our substantially above-consensus forecast to hit 11.1% on the CPI and 14.2% on the RPI in Oct-22. Food prices drove most of the upside for us.</li>
<li>Underlying inflationary pressures remain far too high. The monthly impulse in the median rate is near its highs, as are the annual rates of most other metrics.</li>
<li>We still see this as the peak, but repeating recent upside news could easily extend that further in the next few months. Energy price cap changes could also stoke Apr-23.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation surged beyond our substantially above-consensus forecast to hit 11.1% on the CPI and 14.2% on the RPI in Oct-22. Food prices drove most of the upside for us.
Underlying inflationary pressures remain far too high. The monthly impulse in the median rate is near its highs, as are the annual rates of most other metrics.
We still see this as the peak, but repeating recent upside news could easily extend that further in the next few months. Energy price cap changes could also stoke Apr-23.


UK: Energised Inflation Is Not Controlled