Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Energised Inflation Is Not Controlled

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation returned to form by exceeding the consensus in Sep-22. However, the CPI matched our 10.1% y-o-y forecast, and the RPI was only a tenth above us at 12.6%.</li>
<li>House price’s surprising resilience should end imminently, but core pressures are also lingering at painfully high levels that push inflation persistently above the 2% target.</li>
<li>We still expect another rise in October inflation and the BoE to deliver a 75bp rate hike in November. Energy support changes may extend the 2023 overshoot.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation returned to form by exceeding the consensus in Sep-22. However, the CPI matched our 10.1% y-o-y forecast, and the RPI was only a tenth above us at 12.6%.
House price’s surprising resilience should end imminently, but core pressures are also lingering at painfully high levels that push inflation persistently above the 2% target.
We still expect another rise in October inflation and the BoE to deliver a 75bp rate hike in November. Energy support changes may extend the 2023 overshoot.


UK: Core Raises Inflation Again in Sep-22