Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Energised Inflation Is Not Controlled

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation surprises continue to skew higher as prices remain far below where firms would like them. Additional cost shocks have prevented the gap from closing at all yet.</li>
<li>Government policy encourages second-round effects that raise the equilibrium price and cost-push inflation towards it over the next 18 months.</li>
<li>This macro story raises inflationary trends in our forecast to be almost 2pp above the consensus. That is less than the 4pp gap in March but could still rise again.</li>
</ul>


Inflation surprises continue to skew higher as prices remain far below where firms would like them. Additional cost shocks have prevented the gap from closing at all yet.
Government policy encourages second-round effects that raise the equilibrium price and cost-push inflation towards it over the next 18 months.
This macro story raises inflationary trends in our forecast to be almost 2pp above the consensus. That is less than the 4pp gap in March but could still rise again.


UK Costs Pushing More Inflation